S&P 500 price-to-sales ratio rises to an all-time high

TSMC said its capital expenditure over the next three years will be significantly higher than the past three, with full-year capex projected at $60–$64 billion, up from prior guidance of $52–$56 billion. The chipmaker also plans to add $100 billion in investment in Arizona, U.S. Earlier market data showed TSMC-related contracts on Hyperliquid spiked intraday before pulling back, with losses widening to over 4% at one point, now trading down 3.6%. Today, TSMC released Q2 2026 financial results: net profit rose 77% year-over-year to NT$706.6 billion, hitting a record high and beating market expectations; Q2 revenue grew 36% YoY to NT$1.27 trillion, while high-performance computing (HPC) business revenue rose 20% quarter-over-quarter.

China's domestic leading memory chip maker Changxin Technology opened subscription today, eyeing to become the world's third-largest DRAM supplier. Institutional forecasts put the online subscription winning rate at 0.30% to 0.70%, with a neutral mainstream expectation of around 0.45%—10 to 20 times the 0.02% to 0.05% winning rate of average STAR Market new shares, leading to a "broad-based subscription" scenario. The core reason for the sharp rise in winning rates is that a large portion of strategic placements has been allocated to retail online channels, with the online issuance volume hitting a new high in STAR Market history. Calculated based on the neutral 0.45% winning rate, an average daily market value of RMB 200,000 in Shanghai Stock Exchange assets will yield around 40 allocation numbers, giving a single account an ~18% chance of winning a share. An average daily market value of RMB 1 million will theoretically almost guarantee at least one winning lot, while a maximum subscription of RMB 16.72 million will likely result in around 15 winning lots. This "broad-based subscription" IPO window is relatively rare in STAR Market history, with retail investors' winning probability significantly higher than any popular new share in recent years. However, it should be noted that all current figures are broker forecasts, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange will release the official winning rate announcement after the market closes on July 17. Key timeline points: Winning numbers will be announced on July 20, and investors must have sufficient funds in their accounts to complete payment by 16:00 that day. Each winning lot (500 shares) corresponds to a payment of RMB 4,330, with institutional estimates putting the profit per winning lot at around RMB 3,000 to RMB 26,000.

Chinese domestic storage chip leader Changxin Technology (CXMT) opened share subscriptions today. According to Hyperinsight, the Pre-IPO contract price of CXMT (Changxin Memory, whose listed entity is Changxin Technology) on Hyperliquid is currently at $7.26, corresponding to a RMB share price of 48.6 yuan. Calculated based on the post-issuance total share capital of 66.881 billion shares, the on-chain implied market cap is approximately $485.5 billion, equivalent to around RMB 3.3 trillion. Using this market cap as a reference, retail investors who win the allotment in today's online subscription will face a subscription cost of 4,330 yuan per lot (500 shares), with an estimated market value of 24,300 yuan for 500 shares on the first trading day, translating to a profit of roughly 20,000 yuan per lot.

According to Lookonchain’s monitoring, a newly created whale address has deposited $10 million USDC on the Hyperliquid platform to short CXMT (Changxin Memory Technologies, whose listed entity is Changxin Technology). The wallet has opened a 1x short position of 514,357 CXMT, worth $3.8 million, and placed a limit order to build an additional short position of 490,000 CXMT, valued at $4.17 million, between $8 and $9.

According to Bitget market data, the Nikkei 225 index closed down 1,915.97 points, or 2.79%, at 66,835.54 points. Japanese storage chip firm Kioxia plunged 14%. South Korea’s KOSPI index closed down 466.06 points, a 6.4% drop, at 6,818.35 points. SK Hynix fell 11%, while Samsung Electronics declined 8%. South Korea stated it will soon announce measures to resolve the controversy over leveraged ETFs tied to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix stocks that have exacerbated stock market volatility.

According to Hyperinsight’s monitoring, SPCX was officially added to the Nasdaq 100 Index ahead of the U.S. stock market opening on July 7. The address starting with 0xf929 took a contrarian short position the day before the positive news took effect, likely judging that the good news had already been priced in. It opened its position in the afternoon of July 6 and continued adding to it until the morning of July 10. Currently, this SPCX short position totals 1,005 contracts with an average price of $163.1, for a total short volume of around 44,000 units. As of press time, SPCX is trading at $136.5, and the address has an unrealized profit of $1.167 million, with a return rate of 327.2% and a liquidation price of approximately $202.7. The market’s main current expectation is that SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) will release its first quarterly earnings report after the U.S. market closes on August 6 (Eastern Time). The first earnings-triggered lock-up expiration is around the market open on August 10, allowing the sale of 20% of locked shares; an additional 10% may be unlocked if the stock meets performance targets. The first fixed lock-up expiration of 7% is expected around August 21. In addition to the SPCX position, the address’s long Ethereum (ETH) position also generated high returns. It bought 4,000 ETH on July 2, and currently holds a fully-leveraged long position of around $7.702 million at 20x leverage, with an average entry price of $1,658.7. It now has an unrealized profit of approximately $1.067 million, with a return rate of around 321.6%. Beyond these two high-return positions, the address started bottom-fishing for SK Hynix last night and continued adding to its position this morning. This round totals 5,000 long contracts with a transaction value of around $6.566 million; it currently holds a fully-leveraged position at 10x leverage, with an average price of $1,313.2, and an unrealized loss of approximately $351,000.