Predict.fun World Cup Semi-Final: England vs Argentina Showdown, England’s Probability of Advancing Reaches 53%

Data from prediction market platform Predict.fun shows that the 2026 FIFA World Cup (co-hosted by the US, Canada, and Mexico) semi-final will pit England against Argentina. As of press time, the market gives England a roughly 53% chance of advancing, while Argentina holds a ~46% probability, with both sides’ odds being very close. Scheduled for the early morning of July 16 (Beijing time), this highly anticipated World Cup semi-final will revive the classic England-Argentina rivalry. In World Cup history, the two sides have faced off in five tournaments: 1962, 1966, 1986, 1998, and 2002, making this one of the most talked-about rivalries in the World Cup. Overall, England holds a slight edge in their head-to-head record, but the two have met three times in World Cup knockout rounds before: Argentina came out on top twice, while England’s only win in those matches came en route to its first-ever World Cup title. Both sides’ paths to the semi-final in this World Cup have also been full of tests. Argentina has gone to the wire in three consecutive knockout matches, beating Cape Verde, Egypt, and Switzerland in succession; England, meanwhile, has come from behind against DR Congo and Norway, and edged past Mexico, demonstrating strong ability to perform under pressure. This match is not only a key battle for Lionel Messi-led Argentina to defend its title, but also a crucial opportunity for England to return to the World Cup final for the first time in 60 years.