SemiAnalysis Analyst: Changxin Memory's HBM Technology Lags Top Players by 3 to 4 Years

SemiAnalysis analyst Ray Wang told CNBC in an interview yesterday that HBM demand will be so strong in 2026 that Samsung and SK Hynix are continuously shifting wafer production capacity to HBM while reducing investment in general DRAM—even though general DRAM currently offers higher price margins. Wang noted that amid HBM’s supply shortage, both Korean manufacturers are converting all their HBM output into profits, so Samsung gaining HBM market share does not necessarily mean SK Hynix will suffer losses. The limiting factor here is wafer production output, not market demand. Regarding DRAM maker Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Wang said the company already holds around 10% of the DRAM market share (measured by bits), a solid position in the fast-growing market. However, CXMT lags roughly three years in process technology and three to four years in HBM development. Wang expects most new supply to arrive in the second half of 2027, with additional supply coming in 2028. Still, he believes supply will remain insufficient in 2028, with only a slight improvement over 2027.