South Korea’s KOSPI index decline widens to 7%

According to official announcements, Upbit will list the OPG/KRW trading pair, with trading scheduled to open at 15:30 local time on July 7. Separately, HTX market data shows that OPG surged nearly 40% in the short term driven by the listing news, and is now trading at $0.1779.

Goldman Sachs said in its latest report that semiconductor stocks still offer investment opportunities after a pullback, but trading in AI chips has entered a phase requiring more selective picking, warning investors against simply buying the entire sector. The bank noted that the PHLX Semiconductor Index has risen more than 80% so far this year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices. This strong performance has raised the bar for subsequent earnings delivery, and made the risk-reward outlook more divergent ahead of the second-quarter earnings season. Goldman Sachs remains bullish on select sub-sectors, including CPUs, ASICs, memory, and semiconductor equipment. The bank believes these areas benefit more directly from the expansion of AI infrastructure and have relatively higher demand visibility. For individual stocks, Goldman Sachs named AMD and Applied Materials: AMD gains from server CPU and AI-related demand, while Applied Materials stands to benefit from advanced process technologies and memory capital expenditures. However, Goldman Sachs is more cautious about the mobile supply chain, as well as some semiconductor firms with high valuations or weak demand.

The Wall Street Journal published an article yesterday analyzing the recent high volatility in South Korea’s stock market. The piece cited data showing that over the past year, South Korea’s KOSPI index has seen 77 instances of single-day volatility exceeding 2%. Over the same period, the S&P 500, a key U.S. stock index, has only recorded 5 such sharp swings. The KOSPI has logged 44 days with single-day volatility above 3%, while the S&P 500 has never breached that threshold. The index has also seen 23 days of single-day volatility over 5%. The report notes that this volatility has become one of the factors drawing many South Korean retail investors, who trade purely for the sake of trading. Maxence Visseau, founder of macro and quantitative hedge fund Arkevium Capital, commented: “For retail investors seeking excitement, volatility is exactly what draws them in.” The report also points out that foreign capital outflows exceeded $100 billion (equivalent to around 154 trillion won) in the first half of this year, with $30 billion flowing out in June alone. This trend “could ultimately lead to losses for local investors.”

Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on NVIDIA and a $285 price target, noting that the stock’s current valuation already largely reflects risks of share loss stemming from its in-house AI chips and intensifying competition. NVIDIA has underperformed the broader semiconductor sector recently. Chip stocks rallied broadly on Monday, but NVIDIA’s gain was limited; year-to-date, its returns have also lagged significantly behind those of AI hardware peers including Micron, AMD, Intel, and Marvell. A key market concern is that major clients like Alphabet and Amazon are rolling out in-house ASIC chips to third parties while still purchasing NVIDIA GPUs. Meanwhile, increased CPU adoption in AI workloads has also created more incremental opportunities for AMD and Intel. However, Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider argues that NVIDIA’s risk discount is already excessive. He forecasts that even if ASICs gain some market share and competitors capture part of the incremental demand, NVIDIA’s revenue will still likely post strong growth next year. The Vera Rubin platform, set to enter mass production in the second half of the year, will be critical to determining whether the company can re-establish a significant performance lead over rivals.

According to monitoring by Farside Investors, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $265.7 million yesterday, with IBIT alone attracting $209.4 million. Additionally, Ethereum ETFs posted a net inflow of $20.7 million, among which ETHA recorded a net inflow of $23.3 million. Analysts noted that the cooling of the U.S. stock market’s AI boom may have led some funds exiting the sector to partially replenish oversold crypto ETFs.

Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson’s team says the semiconductor stock pullback of recent weeks may not be complete yet, and could bring a more volatile trading environment to the broader U.S. stock market. The bank points out that rotation is occurring within AI-related trades: earlier, chip stocks significantly outperformed, while hyperscalers including Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta lagged behind. Wilson’s team notes this divergence is unlikely to persist, as semiconductor firms’ growth ultimately depends on cloud giants’ capital expenditures. Morgan Stanley adds that valuation and position pressure on cloud giants have already been priced in; if the market starts rewarding more restrained AI spending, this sector could see renewed capital inflows. The bank also favors consumer discretionary and biotech, stating that falling oil prices and declining interest rate expectations may improve the risk-reward profile of these sectors.