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Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller: More forward guidance is not always better, and it may be dispensed with entirely when necessary.

1 hours ago

Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that monetary policy formulation should not mechanically apply historical experience, but rather assess policy effects based on the current economy’s "initial conditions." When discussing forward guidance, Waller noted that it remains a valuable tool capable of influencing markets in advance and accelerating policy transmission. For example, after the FOMC signaled in September 2021 that it would tighten policy in the future, even though actual interest rate hikes did not begin until March 2022, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield had already risen by nearly 200 basis points cumulatively by then, with the market completing part of the policy transmission in advance. However, Waller also pointed out that when forward guidance is too forceful or rigid, it may instead undermine policy flexibility and delay policy adjustments. He mentioned that the FOMC’s September 2020 conditions for exiting the effective lower bound on interest rates were not adjusted even after inflation surged well above 2% and the unemployment rate fell rapidly in 2021, unnecessarily delaying the timing of interest rate hikes. Waller stated that forward guidance can help accelerate monetary policy transmission, but if it lacks flexibility, it may also hinder policy transmission; in some cases, the best option is to not use forward guidance at all.

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