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Market divergence over the yen’s outlook is intensifying, with a former Japanese finance official stating that the fair exchange rate should stand at 130.

2 hours ago

As USD/JPY returns to near 162, the market has seen clear divisions over the yen’s future trajectory. Tatsuo Yamasaki, former Vice Minister for International Affairs of Japan’s Ministry of Finance, stated that the current yen exchange rate has deviated significantly from its fair level, noting that a rate of around 1 USD = 130 JPY is more aligned with fundamentals, adding that he would “not be surprised” if the yen rises to that level. Meanwhile, some market participants hold the opposite view. Jesper Koll, executive director of Monex Group, and Calvin Yeoh, an analyst at Blue Edge Advisors, argue that if the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to lag behind in monetary policy normalization, USD/JPY could even rise to 200 or higher. Yamasaki also warned that the recent absence of foreign exchange market intervention by the Japanese government should not be interpreted as a lack of willingness to act. He noted that Japan’s financial authorities have issued multiple warnings and demonstrated their readiness to intervene, leaving yen short sellers at risk of forced liquidation. Market participants expect the Japanese government may still intervene in the exchange market at an opportune time in mid-July.

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