Trump: The U.S. and Iran will not engage in hostilities until Khamenei's funeral ends.

Despite the U.S. stock market hitting successive new highs, Bitcoin has underperformed so far this year, but asset management firms Hashdex and Charles Schwab both believe this divergence will not persist long-term. Hashdex Chief Investment Officer Samir Kerbage noted that current market capital is flowing more into themes like AI infrastructure, IPOs, and interest rate trading rather than digital assets, a reflection of shifts in capital allocation rather than a deterioration of the crypto sector’s fundamentals. He pointed out that stablecoin trading volume in the first half of this year has already exceeded the full-year 2025 level, the size of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) has grown by over 60% year-to-date, crypto network transaction activity has also hit an all-time high, and the divergence between on-chain fundamentals and market valuations has reached a historic high. Meanwhile, Jim Ferraioli, Head of Digital Assets Research at Charles Schwab, holds that Bitcoin’s current trajectory still aligns with historical cycles following previous halving events. He explained that Bitcoin typically takes over a year to rebound above the production cost of inefficient miners, which currently stands at around $95,000, while the market’s average cost basis is roughly $80,000 – meaning the price may face ongoing selling pressure from investors exiting losing positions during a rebound. Ferraioli noted that while the "four-year halving cycle" is not an absolute rule, this pattern has profoundly shaped investor behavior. As the Bitcoin market matures, the magnitude of volatility in each future cycle may moderate somewhat.

Decentralized lending protocol Aave’s V3 market on the Monad network has surpassed $100 million in total deposits roughly two days after launch. Aave deployed its V3 version on Monad on July 3, marking the first time lending functions and its GHO stablecoin have been introduced to the network. The launch initially supported 12 assets including USDT, USDC, GHO, WETH, and cbBTC. Deposits exceeded $75 million within the first 24 hours of going live. Per an Aave governance proposal, the Monad Foundation has committed to providing $15 million in incentives over the next 12 months, and will purchase and hold 10 million GHO for at least six months; Aave DAO will also contribute an additional 500,000 GHO to support stablecoin ecosystem development. Additionally, Aave founder Stani Kulechov noted that Aave V4’s deposit volume on the Ethereum mainnet hit a new all-time high of $250 million on July 5. He expressed expectations that V4’s deposits will grow further to $1 billion, with plans to continue expanding into crypto asset mortgage loans and securities-backed lending services.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin published a post stating that Ethereum researchers recently held a meeting in Berlin, continuing discussions with client teams initiated in Svalbard in April, to update the blockchain’s long-term protocol roadmap. Vitalik noted that "Lean Ethereum" is not a single upgrade, but a series of protocol evolutions to be rolled out gradually over the next 3 to 4 years—its impact is comparable to The Merge as Ethereum’s second major iteration, while the current phase may mark its third major evolution. He outlined core upcoming changes for Ethereum: replacing direct execution verification with recursive STARK proofs, integrating post-quantum cryptography, adjusting the consensus mechanism to a decoupled design of available chain and finality, and implementing multi-dimensional gas models alongside state structure restructuring. At the state level, Ethereum may form a "two-tier state structure" around 2030, consisting of ~2TB of traditional dynamic state and ~100TB of new scalable state to support scaling needs across different application scenarios. Vitalik emphasized that privacy capabilities will no longer be an add-on feature, but a core goal of protocol design. The system will also rely more on formal verification to boost security, and push the EVM toward higher-level abstractions, with the underlying layer potentially transitioning gradually to RISC-V or leanISA architectures. Key parameters including gas limits, blob sizes, and block times will be adjusted multiple times over the next few years, as Ethereum continues scaling via client optimizations and protocol upgrades. Vitalik concluded that Ethereum is entering a phase of continuous restructuring and scaling, aiming to complete underlying system upgrades without disrupting the existing application ecosystem.

The Major County Sheriffs Association (MCSA) has shifted its stance on the CLARITY Act from opposition to neutrality. In a letter to Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott and Senator Elizabeth Warren, the organization noted that some of its concerns about Section 604 of the bill have been addressed. Previously, the MCSA had warned that the provision could undermine, to some extent, law enforcement capabilities targeting illegal financial activities related to crypto assets. Section 604 is tied to the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, with its core focus on limiting liability for developers of decentralized protocols. Supporters argue that developers should not be held liable as intermediaries for user actions, while law enforcement agencies had earlier raised fears that the provision could create regulatory and enforcement "loopholes" that would hinder investigations into cases like money laundering, ransomware, drug trafficking, and terrorist financing. Despite the neutral stance, the MCSA still calls for including local law enforcement agencies in relevant research and coordination mechanisms in future revisions to boost digital asset crime investigation capabilities. Analysts say this change removes a key obstacle to the CLARITY Act’s progress, boosting its feasibility of advancing to a Senate vote. However, opposition from the banking sector to stablecoin yield products and DeFi regulation remains a major uncertainty.

Thomas Sy, head of multi-asset solutions at New York Life Investment Management (NYLIM), stated that the next core application of tokenization will be "personalized portfolio construction" rather than just improving settlement efficiency or extending trading hours. NYLIM manages approximately $807 billion in total assets, with about $110 billion overseen by Sy’s team. He noted that blockchain technology will enable asset management firms to customize complex portfolio strategies for different investors at scale—a capability the traditional financial system currently struggles to deliver. Sy added that the future of asset management will center on "high customization," and blockchain is the only technological path capable of achieving this at scale. He emphasized that tokenization is not limited to putting ETFs, bonds or private credit on the blockchain; the key is to restructure the very way portfolios are built. He also pointed out that current portfolios often mix ETFs, bonds and private assets, but personalized strategies are difficult to scale due to operational complexity. Tokenization is expected to "embed customization logic into the assets themselves," reducing operational costs and boosting efficiency. Additionally, Sy said stablecoins have become a key entry point for traditional finance to access on-chain markets. Currently, the stablecoin market capitalization exceeds $300 billion, and they are being used for cross-border payments and fund management. He believes this trend will gradually drive institutional demand for on-chain yield-generating assets. On decentralized finance (DeFi), NYLIM is still researching related applications, but Sy stressed that institutional participation requires more mature infrastructure, including improved tokenized collateral, clearing mechanisms and prime brokerage systems.

The size of U.S. national debt has risen to around $39 trillion, with public debt equivalent to the total U.S. GDP. Annual interest payments have reached roughly $1 trillion, exceeding the defense budget. The U.S. Treasury system traces its origins to the debt consolidation reform promoted by Alexander Hamilton in 1790, when the federal government assumed the war debts of individual states and promised full repayment, thereby establishing the U.S. credit system and laying the foundation for the global status of the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries. Today, U.S. Treasuries are regarded as one of the core assets of the global financial system, underpinning the reserve currency status of the U.S. dollar and widely held by central banks and financial institutions worldwide. However, as the debt scale continues to expand, market concerns about its long-term sustainability have intensified. According to calculations from the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), when the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds around 210%, the fiscal system may face unsustainability risks. Currently, the U.S. ratio stands at roughly 100%, and the U.S. Congressional Budget Office projects it could rise to 175% by 2056. Analysts note that in scenarios of rising healthcare spending and persistent fiscal deficits, this risk threshold could be reached earlier, and the long-term stability of the debt structure is facing more stringent market and policy tests.