Morgan Stanley analysts warn semiconductor sector may peak temporarily.

Morgan Stanley’s strategy team led by Mike Wilson warns investors to significantly raise their stock-picking standards amid the current market correction. Wilson notes the ongoing rally has room to extend, driven by “the market severely underestimating the strength of broad-based earnings recovery”. Against the backdrop of falling oil prices and the Federal Reserve likely being less hawkish than current market pricing, he favors consumer discretionary, transportation, and regional bank sectors. Another key concern for Wilson is the recent sharp volatility in the semiconductor sector, which has made it far harder for the market to maintain historically high allocation positions. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is a prime example: it surged 7.3% in the week of June 15, then plunged 7.9% the following week. He also offers a cautionary analogy for bulls: semiconductors could be another sector this year to have completed a full boom-bust cycle, with a trajectory similar to the silver sector, just four months behind silver in timing. “If rally broadening is a sustainable main trend, then the current upward momentum in the semiconductor sector will likely hit a temporary peak. Judging by the market’s rhythm, this inflection point seems to be arriving as scheduled. This does not mean the semiconductor industry cycle is completely over, but the lack of near-term upside momentum in this sector will leave room for excess returns in other market segments; sectors like consumer discretionary and transportation will stage a temporary rally supported by their own relative positives.”