Morgan Stanley warns: If the unemployment rate falls below 4%, the Federal Reserve may be forced to raise interest rates.
2 hours ago
Morgan Stanley maintains its baseline forecast that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady this year, but warns the stance could shift toward rate hikes if the unemployment rate falls below 4% or inflation remains persistently high. Analyst Michael Gapen noted in a client report that data since the June FOMC meeting has left the firm "somewhat reassured" about its "no rate hike" baseline: oil prices have declined after the signing of the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, and the pass-through effect of tariffs is expected to peak. Morgan Stanley forecasts fourth-quarter headline and core PCE inflation at 3.2% and 3.0% respectively, well below the median expectation of FOMC participants. On the labor market front, the firm projects monthly job gains of 50,000 to 60,000 during the summer, enough to keep the unemployment rate roughly stable. However, Gapen warns that if the unemployment rate drops below 4.0%, the Fed may view the risk of an overheating labor market as sufficient to justify rate hikes; the firm would also reassess its stance if monthly core inflation stays at or above 0.3% or if Middle East conflicts escalate again. At the time of this assessment, Brent crude has fallen to around $72.6, and markets are closely watching upcoming employment and inflation data to calibrate policy expectations for the Fed under Chair Powell.
Donald Trump says Iran violated the ceasefire agreement, but US-Iran talks are still expected to proceed.
2 hours ago
Israel and Lebanon are expected to announce a framework agreement today.
2 hours ago
Trump issues a 100% tariff warning to European countries, demanding they scrap digital services taxes on U.S. companies.
2 hours ago
He Yi: We will not give up on establishing effective communication with EU regulatory authorities, and Binance will continue to adhere to compliance standards for the crypto industry.
2 hours ago
Trump condemns Iran for foolishly violating the ceasefire agreement
2 hours ago
Nasdaq turned positive during intraday trading of US stocks, with SpaceX driving a broad rally across space-related concept stocks.
2 hours ago
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