Institutions: The gold bull market is not over yet, and a turning point may be just around the corner.

CICC Research: Gold’s Pullback Since March Not End of Bull Market, Turnaround Imminent Since March, gold prices have continued to correct, with international gold once dropping below $4,000 per ounce, a decline of over 25% from the early-March high of $5,321 per ounce. This is mainly driven by two factors: First, the US-Iran conflict pushed up oil prices and inflation, stoking market concerns about persistent US inflation and forming expectations of monetary tightening. Second, Christopher Waller’s debut at the June FOMC meeting was interpreted as hawkish, amplifying monetary tightening fears: Waller emphasized inflation discipline, the Fed’s dot plot revised up inflation expectations, and half of the 18 voting members supported at least one rate hike this year. Current market narrative holds that the Fed’s policy priority is “controlling inflation”, with futures markets pricing in one rate hike each in 2026 and 2027 to restore the dollar’s credibility, and a stronger dollar weighing on gold. However, CICC argues that linear extrapolation of these two logics is inappropriate: US inflation may have already peaked and could enter a downward channel in the second half of the year. Waller’s debut does not mean the Fed has fully shifted to tightening; his remarks may be aimed at reserving room for future policy easing. Therefore, this round of gold pullback is not the end of the bull market, and a turnaround may be near. CICC remains optimistic about gold’s outlook, advising investors to maintain positions, buy on dips, and wait for the turnaround. (Source: Jin10)