Analysts disclose that SpaceX and CoreWeave may directly cooperate with ODM manufacturers, prompting a downgrade of Dell’s investment rating.

Hong Kong GF Securities’ Head of Overseas Tech Research Jeff Pu has released a research note downgrading Dell’s stock rating from “Buy” to “Hold”. The key driver: Dell’s share price has rallied 200% since its last earnings report, and 200% since Pu upgraded the rating in October. Its current valuation exceeds 20 times its 2028 fiscal year expected earnings per share (EPS), leaving limited upside potential. Pu pointed out that SMCI holds stronger competitiveness in the AI server segment, and is expected to secure more NVL72 rack orders for SpaceX’s 2027 gigawatt (GW)-scale AI data center construction. Furthermore, the analyst flagged rising risks associated with direct ODM partnerships. Large AI infrastructure clients including SpaceX and CoreWeave are evaluating the option of collaborating directly with ODMs such as Quanta, Hon Hai, and Pegatron, which could bypass branded server integrators like Dell, further compressing the market share and profit margins of traditional vendors. Separately, Dell’s traditional PC business is also facing headwinds: ODM foundry shipments are weak, with next quarter’s volumes projected to decline sequentially, and overall growth momentum has slowed.