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BCA Research has become the latest strategy firm to raise its US stock market target, reflecting Wall Street’s growing optimism about earnings support for US equities in the second half of the year. The institution lifted its year-end S&P 500 target from 7,700 points to 8,100 points. BCA’s core view is that first-quarter corporate earnings exceeded expectations in both strength and breadth, and the US economy has re-entered an expansion phase. Similar to JPMorgan Chase, BCA believes this stock rally is not only driven by valuation expansion—earnings themselves are delivering the index’s gains. AI remains the core variable in this assessment. Large tech firms including Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Oracle continue to increase capital spending on data centers and AI infrastructure, driving growth in orders for chips, servers, construction, power and related industrial chains. This provides a clearer fundamental basis for upward revisions to 2026 and 2027 earnings. The institution points out that risks exist: the earnings expansion brought by AI investments has already been quickly priced into the market. If subsequent returns on capital spending are questioned, or interest rates remain elevated, further upside for the index will require more earnings confirmation rather than relying solely on investor risk appetite.

Tom Lee said the market is still digesting Kevin Warsh’s remarks from his first press conference last week and repricing the macro environment. Over the past week, oil prices have pulled back, with war premiums contracting. Current oil prices are not far from the roughly $65 level seen before the conflict, indicating the market views related war risks as declining. On the other hand, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, now around 4.5%, higher than the pre-conflict level of roughly 4.2%. The main headwind the market has faced recently has shifted from oil prices to yields. Tom Lee noted that the market is not only focused on 10-year U.S. Treasury yields but also starting to price in potential additional interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. According to federal funds futures, the market is currently pricing in nearly two rate hikes this year. Bank of America further projected today that the Fed will raise rates three times this year, in September, October, and December respectively. Jeffrey Gundlach often emphasizes the importance of monitoring 2-year U.S. Treasury yields, as they typically lead the Fed and signal the central bank’s policy direction. Between 2023 and 2025, the relationship between 2-year U.S. Treasury yields and the federal funds rate indicated that the Fed’s policy was overly tight, requiring interest rate cuts. However, this relationship has recently reversed, meaning the Fed would need two rate hikes to catch up with 2-year U.S. Treasury yields. He believes that, at least for now, yields have become a headwind for the market.

According to Bitget market data, the Nikkei 225 index closed up 3,191.37 points, or 4.61%, at 72,366.34 points on Thursday, June 25, hitting a new all-time closing high. South Korea’s KOSPI index rose 459.76 points (5.43%) to end at 8,930.78 points; SK Hynix surged 13% while Samsung Electronics gained more than 5%.

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JPMorgan Chase has raised its year-end outlook for U.S. stocks, while cautioning investors that the overcrowding in AI-related momentum stocks is becoming the market’s most vulnerable segment. The JPMorgan strategy team led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas lifted its 2026 year-end target for the S&P 500 from 7,600 to 7,800 points, citing continued upward revisions to corporate earnings expectations and nearly doubling of AI-related capital expenditures. The bank noted that consensus earnings expectations for both 2026 and 2027 have been revised up by roughly 10% since the start of the year, a magnitude typically only seen in the recovery phase after a recession or major shock. However, JPMorgan does not interpret this upward revision as a risk-free rally. The bank pointed out that low-quality growth stocks, speculative growth stocks, and second- and third-tier AI-related concept stocks have become "extremely overcrowded," and a pullout of capital could trigger a rapid correction. The strategists also noted that rising equity supply in the coming quarters and potentially tight monetary policy could cap further valuation expansion. On the allocation front, JPMorgan recommends a barbell strategy: holding high-quality growth stocks and stocks directly benefiting from AI on one end, and low-volatility, high-quality stocks as a portfolio buffer on the other. The bank remains bullish on tech, select industrials, utilities, defense, banks, and some healthcare growth stocks, but believes the market’s upward trajectory will not be linear.

The Fed’s key inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, will be released at 20:30 tonight, with markets expecting a sharp rise in May inflation that could reignite rate hike bets. The headline PCE year-over-year growth rate is projected to hit 4.1% in May, up from 3.8% in April and marking its highest level since 2023. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, is forecast to rise to 3.4% year-over-year, up from 3.3% in April and its highest reading since October 2023. Core PCE has remained above the Fed’s 2% inflation target since 2021. The recent short-term inflation uptick was driven mainly by surging gasoline prices amid the Iran conflict in May. Oil prices have since edged lower following the signing of a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, but core inflation has strengthened in tandem, indicating that price pressures are not solely tied to geopolitical oil shocks. Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows that as of Wednesday, markets are pricing in a 34% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in July. Aditya Bhave, U.S. economist at Bank of America Securities, noted that the recent inflation rebound stems in part from tariffs and one-off disruptions, but successive supply shocks have eroded the Fed’s patience, while deflationary room in the housing sector has largely been exhausted. Data shows that core PCE dipped to 2.6% in April, its lowest level since 2022, but annualized core PCE growth over the past three and six months has hovered near 3.8%.