Bitcoin Holds Ground at $64,000, Fed's Hawkish Stance Dampens Iran Ceasefire Optimism, ETF Sees Six Straight Weeks of Net Outflows

June 22 – Bitcoin held steady around $64,000 on Monday, stuck in a tight trading range. Last week’s U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, which formally ended over 100 days of conflict and reopened the Strait of Hormuz, briefly pushed the cryptocurrency above $67,000—but that rally was short-lived, capped by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy stance. On the policy front, new Fed Chair Wash struck a hawkish tone for the first time at the latest FOMC meeting. The CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability of a July rate hike at 36%, with markets pricing in at least one 25 basis point increase this year. May’s year-over-year CPI clocked in at 4.2%, far above the Fed’s 2% target—erasing all remaining expectations for rate cuts. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) subsequently climbed to the 100.6 to 100.8 range, a level that historically weighs on Bitcoin performance. From a funding perspective, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has seen six straight weeks of net outflows, totaling $63.5 billion over the past 30 days—a record. There’s still no clear sign of institutional capital flowing back into the space. In the options arena, 1-month implied volatility sits around 39%, while realized volatility has jumped above 42%. Actual price swings are outpacing market expectations, signaling investor exhaustion rather than strong directional conviction. Below the $62,000 threshold, there’s roughly $1.8 billion in accumulated put options. A drop below that level could force market makers to hedge their positions, sparking additional selling pressure that might send Bitcoin cascading down to $60,000. Analysts currently peg Bitcoin’s trading range at $60,000 to $67,000, describing the market as in “a state of equilibrium between support and resistance forces.”