U.S. Lawmaker Introduces Bill to Ban Congressional Members from Participating in Prediction Market Betting, Watchdog Calls for Extension to All Federal Employees

June 21: U.S. Representative Bryan Steil introduced the "Prohibition of Congressional Insider Trading Act," which would bar members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children from placing bets on prediction markets linked to government policies or official actions. Violators would face a civil penalty equal to the greater of $2,000 or 10% of the transaction amount, plus forfeiture of all profits from the trades. Government oversight group Project On Government Oversight (POGO) praised the bill but noted its scope is too limited. POGO is calling for the ban to be expanded to all federal officials and staff across the executive, legislative, and judicial branches. The watchdog pointed out that existing rules impose almost no conflict-of-interest restrictions on federal employees, and the rise of prediction markets has amplified risks of insider information misuse—fueling unfair competition and potential distortions to public policy decisions. U.S. Congress currently holds just a 24% approval rating, and regulatory gaps have already resulted in high-profile cases: U.S. Army Special Forces officer Cannon Van Oke was charged with using classified military intelligence to profit from bets on the prediction platform Polymarket, with his trial scheduled for December 7. Separately, the Anti-Corruption Data Collective uncovered over $9.3 million in high-stakes bets closely tied to military actions in Venezuela and Iran, sparking suspicions of insider trading. Notably, Steil’s prior legislation, the "Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act," passed the House Administration Committee in January but has since failed to advance further.