Analysis: BTC Spot Volume Relative to Decline, Long Squeeze Eases as Market Enters Potential Reaccumulation Phase

June 17 – According to on-chain data analyst Murphy, the market’s current focus shouldn’t be on “Bitcoin spot trading volume” itself, but rather on “spot relative trading volume” (calculated as spot trading volume divided by its 30-day moving average). This metric gauges market activity relative to historical levels, though it doesn’t offer a one-sided directional read—its meaning depends on interpreting volume alongside price action structure. From a structural perspective, Bitcoin retested its February low in June, but the relative trading volume during this retest was notably lower than it was in February. This signals diminished selling pressure during the second retest at a similar price level. The market typically views this combination of “price retesting a low with declining volume” as a key sign of temporary selling pressure drying up. On the derivatives side, the perpetual contract funding rate has seen major shifts since April: the early phase of negative funding rates triggered a short squeeze and subsequent price bounce, but by mid-May, those negative rates had faded completely and flipped into steep positive territory—marking the end of the market’s rebound and the start of a pullback. Currently, the funding rate structure has moved back into its normal range, indicating that downward pressure from overcrowded long positions and excessive leverage is easing, and long-short positioning is beginning to balance out. Overall, spot demand remains relatively muted, but marginal selling pressure is decreasing. Combined with the reduced impact of leverage in derivatives markets, the market is aligning closer to the operational rhythm it followed over the past two to three months—potentially entering a new phase of range-bound accumulation. That said, no clear trend reversal signals have emerged yet.