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Kalshi has developed an AI agent tool for stress-testing market prediction trading and risk.

1 hours ago

June 15 – Bloomberg reports that prediction market platform Kalshi is developing an AI agent to run automated stress tests on user transactions, aimed at evaluating the fairness and risk of its contract pricing. This AI system is designed to simulate trading behaviors across various market scenarios, conducting multi-dimensional validation of event contract prices to identify potential risks and pricing anomalies—including cases of extreme volatility, information shocks, and liquidity changes. Insiders note the tool is still in early development, but it has become a key part of Kalshi’s push to expand its institutional-grade trading infrastructure, progressing in tandem with the recent launch of a specialized upgrade to its trading interface. Analysts point out that as prediction market trading volumes surge and draw increasing institutional participation, Kalshi is accelerating integration of AI and quantitative tools to enhance market efficiency, reduce information asymmetry, and strengthen its regulatory compliance capabilities.
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Kraken Launches Crypto Perpetual Futures Trading in the United States, Expanding Compliance-driven Derivatives Offering

On June 15, cryptocurrency exchange Kraken announced it will launch crypto perpetual futures trading for U.S. users on its professional trading platform Kraken Pro, marking the firm’s latest expansion into the U.S. derivatives market. Perpetual futures are derivatives with no expiry date, using a funding rate mechanism to tie their price to the spot market—popular for leveraged trading of assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). The launch comes on the back of Kraken’s acquisition of Bitnomial, a CFTC-regulated exchange, clearinghouse, and broker, earlier this May. Separately, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recently greenlit Kalshi to offer Bitcoin perpetual futures and gave Coinbase the nod to launch “quasi-perpetual” long-term futures products. Regulators under the current U.S. administration are ramping up efforts to drive the “domestication” of crypto derivatives, aiming to lure trading activity back from overseas platforms to regulated U.S. markets. M

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An Ethereum whale has borrowed coins to short ETH, accumulating a total of 44,389 ETH and selling them off.

June 15 — Per on-chain analytics firm LookOnChain, amid a market rebound, a crypto whale borrowed another 19,000 ETH ($33.48 million) from Aave and sold it today. As of press time, the whale has taken out a total of 44,389 ETH ($80.56 million) from Aave for selling purposes.

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SpaceX raised approximately $85.7 billion in its first-ever initial public offering (IPO).

On June 15, SpaceX said its underwriters exercised their option to buy an additional 83.33 million shares of stock, bringing the total capital raised in its initial public offering (IPO) to approximately $85.7 billion. Source: Jinse.

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Morgan Stanley: Funds may shift from tech stocks, US stock rally structure may pivot to broader rotation

June 15 – Morgan Stanley says the structure of the U.S. stock market’s rally is set to shift, with capital likely rotating out of high-valuation tech stocks into a wider range of cyclical sectors. The strategy team led by Michael Wilson notes that as geopolitical risks ease, oil prices decline, and pressure on interest rates and the U.S. dollar diminishes, the market backdrop is becoming increasingly supportive of economically sensitive assets. Sectors that have lagged in past performance could now see catch-up gains. The report points out that prior U.S. stock market gains were heavily concentrated in tech, while cyclical areas – including discretionary consumer spending, transportation, and regional banks – remain generally underweighted by funds, leaving room for new capital inflows. Recent expectations of easing U.S.-Iran tensions and smoother passage through the Strait of Hormuz have also lifted market risk appetite. Karen Ward, European strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Manageme

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Iranian President: Iran and the United States to Sign a Memorandum of Understanding on the 19th

June 15 — Iranian media reported that Iranian President Raisi said Iran and the United States will sign a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on June 19.

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Economist: US-Iran Agreement Reduces Recession Risk, but Does Not Alter Outlook

On June 15, Ben May and Bridget Payne of the Oxford Institute for Economic Research noted in a report that even with potential future hurdles, the U.S.-Iran deal has slowed the ongoing decline in global oil inventories, driving a sharp spike in energy prices worldwide and stoking fears of an economic recession. But they stressed that this shift won’t necessarily mean a faster pickup in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz than previously projected. “We initially thought shipping through the strait would restart by the end of July. Still, our current short-term oil price forecast remains elevated.” They added that reopening the Strait of Hormuz should help cool inflation but will do little to lift economic growth. That backs their core take: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England (BoE) won’t hike interest rates again, and other central banks that’ve already lifted rates will hold steady too. (FXStreet)

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