Next Week Macro Outlook: US-Iran Negotiation Enters Key Window, Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate Data Incoming

As of May 31: U.S. President Trump stated that a ceasefire deal between the U.S. and Iran is close to being finalized, while demanding Iran abandon its nuclear weapons capability and open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, however, has not approved the final agreement text, noting there are still unresolved gaps in related arrangements. U.S. Secretary of Defense Hedges warned the U.S. stands ready to resume military action against Iran should negotiations fail. If Washington and Tehran can reach a ceasefire extension or a phased deal next week, risk assets may extend their gains, while oil prices and safe-haven assets will face new directional headwinds. On the macro front, the U.S. will release key economic data next week, including May’s seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll figures and May unemployment rate. Several Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled to speak, giving markets more insights to weigh the U.S.’s economic slowdown against persistent inflation pressures, as well as shifts in the future interest rate path. Below are the key events to watch: - Monday at 11:00: NVIDIA’s GTC Taipei 2026 Conference kicks off, with Jensen Huang delivering the keynote speech. - Tuesday at 13:50: 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari speaks; at 20:30, 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Mester delivers remarks on monetary policy; at 22:00, U.S. April JOLTs Job Openings data is released. - Wednesday at 20:15: U.S. May ADP Employment Change; at 22:00, U.S. May ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. - Thursday at 02:00: The Federal Reserve publishes its Beige Book; at 20:30, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 30. - Friday at 01:10: San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks; at 20:30, U.S. May Non-Farm Payrolls and May Unemployment Rate. Meanwhile, AI remains a core theme driving global risk asset rallies. As the corporate earnings season draws to a close, markets will focus on results from companies like CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, and Broadcom to see if the AI investment frenzy can keep spreading across more industries. After U.S. stocks closed May at all-time highs, the market is also bracing for the traditional "June Curse"—a historical pattern where June is the worst-performing month for U.S. stocks in midterm election years, leading many investors to expect a short-term consolidation phase.