Next Week Macro Outlook: US-Iran Agreement May See "Phase One Deal," US-Japan Interest Rate Path Expected to Become Clearer

May 24. After nearly three months of conflict, Iran, the U.S., Pakistan, and several international media outlets signaled Saturday that negotiations are making progress, with all parties moving toward milestone outcomes. Should this trend continue to be confirmed and implemented next week, risk appetite could return to capital markets, leading to a rally in U.S. equities and cryptocurrencies. On the macro front, top officials from the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan (BoJ) will deliver speeches next week, offering further clarity on near-term interest rate expectations. Key upcoming events include: - Tuesday, 10:00 PM ET: U.S. Conference Board May Consumer Confidence Index - Wednesday, 8:00 AM JST: BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks at the bank’s Monetary Policy Meeting - Wednesday, 8:15 PM ET: ADP U.S. Employment Change for the week ended May 9 - Thursday, 8:30 PM ET: Canada’s Q1 Current Account; U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended May 23; U.S. April Core PCE Price Index YoY; U.S. April Personal Income; revised U.S. Q1 Real GDP Annualized QoQ; U.S. April Core PCE Price Index MoM; U.S. April Durable Goods Orders MoM - Thursday, 9:55 PM ET: John Williams (Permanent FOMC Voter, New York Fed President) delivers a keynote address at a conference hosted by the Central Bank of Iceland - Thursday, 10:15 PM ET: Alberto Musalem (2028 FOMC Voter, St. Louis Fed President) speaks - Friday, 7:30 AM JST: Japan’s April Unemployment Rate - Friday, 6:50 PM ET: Jeffrey Schmid (2028 FOMC Voter, Kansas City Fed President) speaks - Friday, 9:10 PM ET: Fed Board Member Michelle Bowman speaks Additionally, U.S. stock markets will be closed on Monday, May 25 in observance of Memorial Day. COMEX precious metals and WTI crude oil futures trading will halt at 2:30 AM Beijing Time on May 26; U.S. stock and bond futures trading will suspend at 1:00 AM Beijing Time on May 26; and ICE Brent crude oil futures will begin early close trading at 1:30 AM Beijing Time on May 26.