Analysis: BTC Breakout in April Still Holding Above Short-Term Holder Cost, Cycle Bottom Will Eventually Form

May 18th — On-chain data analyst Murphy noted that the evolving relationship between cost basis and price behavior is one of the most effective frameworks for tracking Bitcoin’s (BTC) bottom structure formation, with the "1-3 month short-term holder cost basis" (1-3m_RP) serving as the most reliable reference. He explained that every bear market bottom formation in prior cycles was accompanied by a gradual shift in this short-term holder cost basis (marked by the yellow line), citing these historical examples: - During 2015-2016, BTC first broke above its short-term holder cost basis and then traded around that level for an extended period. - In 2019-2020, BTC made an aggressive breakout above this cost basis before entering a small bull market. - In 2022-2023, BTC broke above the short-term holder cost basis, retraced twice to find support, and rebounded higher afterward. In the current cycle, BTC broke above the short-term holder cost basis on April 15 and has held above that level consistently since. Murphy emphasized that regardless of future price movements, BTC’s bottom will eventually take shape, and a breakout above the yellow line will signal its upward shift. The analyst added that the priority isn’t predicting exact price actions but preparing in advance and allocating positions strategically. The historical trends provided are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.