「BTC OG Insider Whale」 Agent: Underlying Market Risk Accumulating, US-Iran Ceasefire Only Postpones Escalation of Real Conflict

**May 7 — Garrett Jin, an agent with BTC OG Whale Insider, published an article titled “Disguised Truce” warning that while markets look calm on the surface, underlying risks are piling up—traders shouldn’t let their guard down. Weeks after former President Trump’s April 14-15 state visit to China, a U.S.-Iran military conflict could reignite at any time. A truce isn’t a sign of good news ahead—it’s just a pause before real conflict escalates.** **On the surface, markets are upbeat now: Saudi Arabia and Iran inked a 14-point memorandum; Apple’s Q3 guidance blew past expectations; AMD’s data center revenue hit a new peak; South Korean stocks are at record highs; and Bitcoin is hovering near $82k-$83k. But risks still linger.** **Yet cracks are emerging in the market’s credit foundation: Analytics firm Qualtrics couldn’t find buyers for a planned large transaction; U.S. budget carrier Spirit Airlines recently filed for bankruptcy, a red flag for low-cost airlines; banks are bracing for U.S.-Iran war escalation by preemptively setting aside bad-debt reserves. Berkshire Hathaway’s cash hoard also hit a record high, among other signs.** **Jin argues the U.S.-Iran “false peace” will fray until it breaks. Late May could be a key turning point—but if tech giants keep beating expectations, markets may hold up through July’s earnings season, pushing the risk window back.**