The Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz Remains Uncertain, Oil Prices Experience Volatility

**May 5th Brief** Arthur Hayes said at Consensus 2026 that while 99% of altcoins may eventually go to zero, this trend mirrors historical turnover among S&P 500 components—and doesn’t signal the industry’s end. Hayes noted roughly 98% of S&P 500 companies have been replaced or removed since 1929, framing market purging as a normal part of the cycle. The altcoin ecosystem, he added, will persist and evolve.

On May 5, Coinbase announced a seven-figure strategic investment in Centrifuge, naming it the primary asset tokenization platform for its in-house public chain Base. Under the partnership, Centrifuge will serve as the core infrastructure for issuing tokenized assets on Base, supporting on-chain trading of real-world assets (RWAs) like ETFs, credit funds, and structured products. The two parties have collaborated previously—including launching the first compliant on-chain S&P 500 index fund on Base. Coinbase noted that Centrifuge was chosen for its institutional-grade infrastructure, compliance capabilities, and scalability. The platform offers an end-to-end solution spanning asset structuring, tokenization tools, yield interfaces, and compliance support. This partnership is viewed as a key step in Coinbase’s efforts to strengthen its asset tokenization strategy, with potential future expansion to include more high-liquidity traditional financial assets.

May 5 (AXIOS) — A U.S. official and a source familiar with the matter said Sunday that a senior Trump administration official had notified Iran of an upcoming U.S. "guidance" operation to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, warning Tehran against interfering. The private communication signals the White House is trying to lower the risk of potential escalation. Still, Iran has persisted in attacks on U.S. Navy vessels, commercial ships and the United Arab Emirates despite the warning. On Tuesday, U.S. Defense Secretary and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Kane downplayed Iran’s attacks, asserting the ceasefire agreement remains in effect. Some U.S. and Israeli officials, however, say if the diplomatic deadlock continues, President Trump could order a resumption of hostilities later this week.

On May 5, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) said its air defense systems are responding to a missile threat. Gains on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rapidly narrowed. (IG)

May 5th — Per a CCTV report, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated on May 5th that the current Trump administration has determined the U.S.-Iran ceasefire remains in effect, so President Trump does not require congressional approval to continue military operations. Hegseth noted that should Trump order a resumption of military strikes, discussions on the issue will naturally occur at that time.

On May 5, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s chief business economist Chris Williamson noted: “U.S. business activity resumed growth in April after a slight March dip, but momentum has slowed sharply since the start of the year.” Survey data points to U.S. GDP growing at a modest ~1% annualized rate. Growth is set to weaken further: the service sector reported a drop in new business inflows for the first time in two years, signaling the Middle East conflict’s growing impact on demand. The conflict’s direct effects are most visible in services, where higher prices have cut discretionary spending (e.g., holidays, entertainment). High fuel costs and travel disruptions have also held back transport activity. That said, weaker financial services demand ties to growing market uncertainty, and also reflects expectations of higher inflation and rate impacts on real estate and credit. Input cost inflation keeps rising, fuel prices are up, goods and services prices are broadly increasing, an