UBS: Still Expects the Fed to Cut Rates by 50 Basis Points Later This Year
April 17 – A UBS research report noted the Federal Reserve remains on track for further monetary easing.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently downplayed the need for tighter monetary policy amid rising energy prices, saying policymakers typically “look through” supply shocks like surging oil costs—especially when inflation expectations stay well anchored.
While the Fed still wants more evidence of sustained moderation in core inflation before easing policy again, we expect a 50-basis-point rate cut later this year. Given U.S. Treasury yields are well above pre-conflict levels, we see ample room for them to decline; our year-end targets are 3.25% for 2-year Treasuries and 3.75% for 10-year Treasuries, respectively.
(FXStreet)
7 minutes ago
Greeks.live: This Week the Crypto Market Begins to Rebound, But On-Chain Metrics Still Show Bearish Signs
Greek.live shared April 17th options expiration data via social media on April 17:
- 22,000 BTC options expiring, with a Put-Call Ratio of 1.05, Max Pain at $72,000, and a notional value of $16.5 billion.
- 100,000 ETH options expiring, with a Put-Call Ratio of 0.95, Max Pain at $2,250, and a notional value of $4.6 billion.
The market extended its rebound this week: Bitcoin trades around $75,000, signaling recovery with notable gains in select sectors. Bitcoin’s options market share has edged lower, while altcoins are gaining momentum. Per open interest maturity, 70% of options open positions cluster between April 24 and June 26—with heavy concentration around late April and late May.
Key options metrics:
- Bitcoin’s front-month implied volatility (IV) has dropped sharply this month, with most tenors now near 40%.
- Ethereum’s front-month IV has also declined to ~60%.
- Short-term IV held steady this week, while medium-to-long-term IV continued falling.
- Skew is risi
7 minutes ago
CryptoQuant Analyst: Bitcoin is entering a "Value Accrual Zone," with limited downside
April 17th — Per CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin’s Composite Market Index (BCMI) — which combines MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, and the Fear & Greed Index — is currently testing a key historical pivot zone.
Analyst Woominkyu (@Woo_Minkyu) noted the BCMI has dropped to the 0.2–0.3 range. While an immediate “V-shaped” reversal isn’t guaranteed, this range historically signals deep undervaluation for BTC. Data shows the latest pullback has reset realized value and market sentiment to levels last seen in early 2023, but the 90-day moving average (the white line) still trends downward. From a conservative standpoint, waiting for this line’s slope to flatten will signal selling pressure has finally exhausted.
Additionally, Woominkyu believes the market is entering a “value accumulation zone,” where downside risk is shrinking relative to long-term upside potential. Still, price stability is needed to confirm the index’s bottom signal.
7 minutes ago
Analyst: Market Not Betting on Long-term Hormuz Closure or Third Oil Crisis
April 17 — Ryoji Musha, president of Japan’s Musha Research, emphasized the stark gap between media-reported pessimism and actual market behavior cannot be overlooked.
Since Iran’s conflict erupted on February 28, the S&P 500 Index has fully recovered, now trading just 1% below its all-time high. While recent crude oil spot prices remain elevated, six-month futures contracts have fallen back to the $70 range. This signals the market does not anticipate a long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz or a third oil crisis.
Musha further noted the global economy’s oil dependence is far lower than in the 1970s: Japan’s oil share in its energy mix has dropped from 76% during the first oil crisis to 35% in 2024. Alternative routes (like pipelines from Saudi Arabia and the UAE) already exist, and a prolonged Hormuz closure would not serve Iran’s interests — the strait is critical to Iran’s trade.
Though Japan remains vulnerable to rising energy import and transportation costs, the marke
7 minutes ago
Ethereum-Based Meme Coin ASTEROID Market Cap Surpasses $20 million, Reaching an All-Time High
April 17 – Per GMGN monitoring, the Ethereum-based meme coin ASTEROID has reached a new all-time high, with its market capitalization surpassing $20 million (now at $21.84 million). Its 24-hour trading volume stands at $14.7 million.
BlockBeats Note: Fifteen-year-old Liv Perrotto’s biggest wish before dying of cancer was to meet Elon Musk; she even compiled a list of questions for him. She previously designed a zero-gravity indicator plush toy named “Asteroid” (featuring a Shiba Inu). Her mother later publicly appealed to Musk, hoping he’d make Asteroid SpaceX’s official mascot to honor Liv’s wish. Musk responded, saying he’d “reply shortly.”
BlockBeats Warning: Meme coin trading is extremely volatile, driven largely by market sentiment and hype. These tokens have no real-world value or utility. Investors should be aware of significant risks.
7 minutes ago
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