Arthur Hayes Hypes Again: $150 Is Just the Beginning

April 17th — Per CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin’s Composite Market Index (BCMI) — which combines MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, and the Fear & Greed Index — is currently testing a key historical pivot zone. Analyst Woominkyu (@Woo_Minkyu) noted the BCMI has dropped to the 0.2–0.3 range. While an immediate “V-shaped” reversal isn’t guaranteed, this range historically signals deep undervaluation for BTC. Data shows the latest pullback has reset realized value and market sentiment to levels last seen in early 2023, but the 90-day moving average (the white line) still trends downward. From a conservative standpoint, waiting for this line’s slope to flatten will signal selling pressure has finally exhausted. Additionally, Woominkyu believes the market is entering a “value accumulation zone,” where downside risk is shrinking relative to long-term upside potential. Still, price stability is needed to confirm the index’s bottom signal.

April 17 — Ryoji Musha, president of Japan’s Musha Research, emphasized the stark gap between media-reported pessimism and actual market behavior cannot be overlooked. Since Iran’s conflict erupted on February 28, the S&P 500 Index has fully recovered, now trading just 1% below its all-time high. While recent crude oil spot prices remain elevated, six-month futures contracts have fallen back to the $70 range. This signals the market does not anticipate a long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz or a third oil crisis. Musha further noted the global economy’s oil dependence is far lower than in the 1970s: Japan’s oil share in its energy mix has dropped from 76% during the first oil crisis to 35% in 2024. Alternative routes (like pipelines from Saudi Arabia and the UAE) already exist, and a prolonged Hormuz closure would not serve Iran’s interests — the strait is critical to Iran’s trade. Though Japan remains vulnerable to rising energy import and transportation costs, the marke

April 17 – Per GMGN monitoring, the Ethereum-based meme coin ASTEROID has reached a new all-time high, with its market capitalization surpassing $20 million (now at $21.84 million). Its 24-hour trading volume stands at $14.7 million. BlockBeats Note: Fifteen-year-old Liv Perrotto’s biggest wish before dying of cancer was to meet Elon Musk; she even compiled a list of questions for him. She previously designed a zero-gravity indicator plush toy named “Asteroid” (featuring a Shiba Inu). Her mother later publicly appealed to Musk, hoping he’d make Asteroid SpaceX’s official mascot to honor Liv’s wish. Musk responded, saying he’d “reply shortly.” BlockBeats Warning: Meme coin trading is extremely volatile, driven largely by market sentiment and hype. These tokens have no real-world value or utility. Investors should be aware of significant risks.

CoinDesk reports that as of April 17, Bitcoin is currently trading at $74,700, down 0.4% over the past 24 hours. Risk sentiment got a boost from news of U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks, with the S&P 500 hitting a new all-time high on Thursday. Former President Trump stated the prospect of a permanent U.S.-Iran ceasefire “looks very optimistic,” claiming Iran has agreed to abandon its nuclear ambitions, hand over nuclear materials, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz—though Iran has not confirmed these concessions. Meanwhile, markets are closely tracking structural signals behind Bitcoin’s price moves. ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria noted: “The extremely negative funding rate signals the market is heavily short. If Bitcoin continues to rise in this environment, a wave of short positions could face forced liquidation, further accelerating price gains.” He predicted Bitcoin could reach $125,000 in the next 30 to 60 days if the short base is squeezed out. On-chain analyst CryptoVizArt offered

April 17 — Per data from HyperInsight Monitoring (via their Telegram channel @HyperInsight), a whale with an address starting with 0xd47 has liquidated all high-leverage Bitcoin (BTC) long positions opened earlier that morning within the past hour. The positions had a liquidation price of ~$74,600, resulting in an approximate loss of $75,000. Prior to liquidation, the whale held 100 BTC (valued at ~$7.53 million at entry) with an entry price of ~$75,300. Full address: 0xd470711252d74f232cd686ac5c4aefb05e1f43a7

April 17 – Binance Wallet announced in an official statement that the Binance Alpha airdrop will go live today at 17:00 GMT. The event uses the updated Binance Alpha Box model, with the airdrop pool including tokens from multiple projects. Eligible users (those with at least 242 Binance Alpha Points) can claim rewards on a first-come, first-served basis—though claiming requires 15 Alpha Points. Additionally, the airdrop features three reward tiers: Common (80% of the pool), Rare (15%), and Ultra Rare (5%)—each tied to a distinct Alpha Box value. Users will be placed in a tier during claiming, with rewards distributed based on tier ratios. If rewards aren’t fully claimed, the points threshold will drop by 5 points automatically every 5 minutes.