Bitunix Analyst: Energy Supply Risk Shifts to Manageable but Not Yet Resolved, Policy and Corporate Actions Showing Delayed Response, Market Entering Asymmetric Pricing Phase.

April 16: The market’s key driver has shifted from “whether conflict would escalate” to “whether risks have been fully priced in.” U.S.-Iran negotiation signals have strengthened sharply—including talks on extending the ceasefire, gradual timeline clarity, and Iran’s note that maritime shipping hasn’t been fully disrupted—driving a pullback in earlier extreme supply shock expectations. That said, the U.S. has also ramped up sanctions on Iran’s energy and financial systems, meaning risks haven’t been eliminated, just shifted to a “controlled containment” state. This dynamic shows up directly in energy market pricing: The abnormal WTI-Brent premium has started to weaken, signaling a slight cooling of the market’s extreme “physical deliverability premium” bets—but spot market tightness hasn’t eased. More critically, OPEC’s big production cuts and lingering shipping risks have kept oil prices sticky on the upside. That explains the gap between Fed and Treasury statements: One stresses inflation hasn’t fully embedded in expectations, while the other is already carving out space for potential price pass-through. Corporate-level changes are emerging as a new watchpoint. Industry reports show “uncertainty itself” has become an economic constraint: Firms are delaying investments, scaling back hiring commitments, and shifting to short-term hires. Demand hasn’t collapsed—but has entered a defensive mode. Even if energy prices stay high, their pass-through to the broader economy will be “lagged and nonlinear,” raising policy misjudgment risks. Against this backdrop, markets are seeing a classic “expectation correction rally”: Macro data like weaker-than-expected PPI hasn’t boosted risk appetite clearly. Instead, it’s clashing with the IMF’s growth forecast cuts, pushing funds toward short-term trades over medium-term positions. That’s why high-volatility assets (e.g., RAVE) have seen extreme short squeezes lately—driven mainly by liquidity dynamics, not fundamental improvements. In crypto: BTC’s current logic is still a “risk tolerance test.” After entering its prior high supply zone, it hit heavy resistance near $75,500. Above $76k lies a concentrated liquidation zone; triggering it would amplify short-term momentum and test a higher liquidity range. At the same time, a preliminary support level has formed around $74k, meaning funds haven’t fully exited risk assets. Overall: Markets haven’t entered a one-way risk appetite rebound. Instead, they’re in a phase of “easing macro risk buffers + unresolved structural pressures.” The short-term dominant factor is no longer the event itself—but how the event gets repriced, and whether liquidity will re-enter as uncertainty fades.