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The Israeli Security Cabinet will convene tonight to discuss a potential ceasefire in Lebanon.

2 hours ago

April 15 – A senior Israeli official told Reuters the country’s Security Cabinet will meet at 8 p.m. local time (1 a.m. Beijing time tonight) to discuss a potential ceasefire in Lebanon. Three hours ago, PolyBeats—BlockBeats’ affiliated prediction market channel—correctly predicted this development. On the Polymarket prediction platform, a new account invested $9,000 in the question “Will Israel and Hezbollah reach a ceasefire today?” by purchasing the “Yes” outcome, with the “Yes” probability currently at 5.0%. The account’s on-chain funds trace back to bor.eth, which links to Polymarket account 0xa4eb5222. Over 7 transactions, the account netted $405,000 from predicting the timing of the U.S.-Iran conflict and a subsequent ceasefire, then renamed itself before withdrawing funds to bor.eth.
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April 15 — Bitget market data indicates U.S. stock moves may be linked to reports that the U.S. and Iran are weighing a two-week extension of their ceasefire agreement. The Nasdaq climbed 1%, the S&P 500 added 0.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped more than 0.3%. Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, notes the ceasefire — set to expire next Tuesday — could be extended to allow more time for peace negotiations. Mediators are arranging technical discussions to address top contentious issues, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s uranium enrichment activities. Success in these talks could clear the way for the next round of negotiations between senior officials from both sides. However, other U.S. officials familiar with the situation caution the ceasefire extension is not yet confirmed, and the U.S. has not agreed to the arrangement. Additional sources add neither the U.S. nor Iran wants to escalate tensions.

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