Tom Lee: War has a net positive impact on the U.S. economy, and the market has already begun to price in a favorable outcome

April 15th, Tom Lee—Chairman of Ethereum Treasury firm BitMine—told CNBC in an interview: “The stock market remains resilient because even amid war, the economy’s performing better than expected.” He noted current defense spending runs around $30 billion a month and could rise to $60 billion monthly down the line, giving the economy a big boost. Meanwhile, with oil prices up $20 a month, that only adds about $12 billion in household costs. “All told, the war is actually boosting corporate profits right now.” Lee cited a historical precedent: “Looking at World War II, the stock market hit a bottom in May 1942—just five months after the U.S. entered the war—when no U.S. troops had yet set foot on European or Pacific battlefields.” He added: “Markets are great at pricing in outcomes ahead of time. The current rally means investors are betting on a favorable outcome—even if I can’t pinpoint the exact reasons, that’s the signal the market’s sending.” On the three key market variables right now—the Iran conflict, corporate earnings, and interest rates—Lee said: “Of those three, only war can trigger two-way tail risks, so that’s the most critical variable to watch closely.” For sector picks, he’s still bullish on energy, noting energy security is one of the biggest structural themes in recent years.