Putin Ceasefire, Trump Warning, Houthis Threat - In a single night, drums of war sounded in three parts of the world

**April 10th Quick Recap: Key Geopolitical Developments** - **Ukraine-Russia Ceasefire**: Putin announced a 32-hour Easter ceasefire; Ukrainian President Zelensky immediately matched the move. The ceasefire window opens at 9:00 PM Beijing time on April 11th. - **Market & Policy Updates**: - Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) hiked margin requirements for Brent and European Diesel futures contracts. - U.S. media reports: The U.S. government is expected to extend Russian oil sanction waivers this week, potentially clearing the way for future Iran oil waiver arrangements. - Polish Central Bank President reaffirmed commitment to growing gold reserves (current holdings: 580 tons), reiterating its 700-ton target. - **Iran & Middle East: Multiple Fronts Progressing** - **Negotiations**: Iran’s deputy foreign minister confirmed a delegation will travel to Islamabad for peace talks—but laid out a condition: Israel must halt attacks on Lebanon. Sources note Iran will not hold formal talks with the U.S. until a Lebanon-Israel ceasefire is in place. - **Lebanon-Israel**: Israeli PM Netanyahu ordered direct talks with Lebanon, but emphasized no ceasefire will occur until Hezbollah is disarmed. Lebanon and Israel are slated to start direct negotiations in Washington next week. Trump said he has asked Netanyahu to carry out operations in Lebanon “more subduedly.” - **Hormuz Strait**: Iran’s deputy foreign minister stated the strait remains open to civilian vessels, but passage requires coordination with Iran. Trump publicly warned Iran against imposing tolls, using strong language: “That’s not even in the realm of what we agreed to.” - **Spillover Risks**: Yemen’s Houthi rebels cited the Lebanon situation to threaten stricter controls over Red Sea shipping lanes. Iran denied firing missiles at other countries during the ceasefire. **Critical 48 Hours Ahead**: Concurrent progress in Islamabad talks, Lebanon-Israel negotiations, and Hormuz passage discussions signals a key turning point for the Middle East.