Israeli Military Strikes Lebanon, Houthis Close Bab al-Mandab Strait Again, Escalation on First Day of Ceasefire

April 9 — Nick Timiraos, often called the Federal Reserve’s "megaphone" for his closely watched Fed coverage, noted that minutes from the central bank’s recent meeting show the "vast majority" of officials think the pace of inflation easing may be slower than expected. The slowdown ties to three interconnected concerns: tariff impacts on commodity prices could take longer to fade; oil prices’ pass-through to core inflation; and years of inflation running above the Fed’s target, leaving expectations more vulnerable to fresh shocks. (IG)

On April 9, U.S. Rep. Ritchie Torres (D) called for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to investigate suspicious trading in oil and stock futures markets in the lead-up to former President Donald Trump’s decision last month to postpone a military strike on Iran. “The speed, scale and structure of these trades are highly suspicious,” Torres said. “It’s clear the SEC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) cannot ignore this.” The Democratic lawmaker also urged regulators to launch a formal probe into trading activity in oil, energy and stock futures markets in the minutes before Trump’s March 23 tweet, and to obtain trading records for accounts linked to those trades. (Jinse)

**April 9 (Wall Street Journal) —** Iran is tightening de facto control of the Strait of Hormuz under the U.S.-Iran ceasefire framework, limiting daily vessel transit to roughly 12 while requiring advance coordination fees and transit permits. All vessels must first secure approval from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Data shows daily transit caps have dropped as low as 4 vessels since April—down from a pre-conflict daily average of over 100. Iran is pushing a tiered fee system: - Iranian cargo vessels: free transit - Friendly-country vessels: subject to fees - U.S./Israel-linked vessels: may face restrictions Industry sources note supertanker fees could reach up to $2 million. Long-term implementation would let Iran exert significant control over roughly 20% of global oil supplies. While the U.S. continues advocating for freedom of navigation in the strait, there are no signs Iran is easing restrictions. Analysts say this move has emerged as Iran’s

April 9 — Democratic Congressman Ritchie Torres is calling on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to investigate unusual trading activity in oil and stock futures markets shortly before former President Donald Trump delayed a military strike on Iran last month (March 23). “The speed, scale, and structure of the trades are all highly suspicious,” Torres said. “It’s patently clear the SEC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) can’t turn a blind eye.” The Democratic lawmaker is urging regulators to launch a formal probe into trades in the minutes before Trump’s March 23 post (covering oil, energy, and stock futures markets) and to obtain trading records for accounts linked to those trades. (FX678)

April 9, Nick Timiraos—known as the "Fed’s megaphone"—noted that expectations for Fed rate cuts are fading fast, and shifts in the Middle East situation are no longer a key factor. The latest minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) show that amid stable inflation and a robust labor market, the Fed held its benchmark interest rate steady in the 3.5%-3.75% range, signaling a more cautious policy approach. Most officials see that the effects of tariffs, energy price pass-through, and rising inflation expectations could slow the pace of inflation’s decline more than anticipated. The analysis notes that even a ceasefire may not prompt rate cuts. Conversely, reduced tensions could ease downside economic risks, draw more attention to inflation, and extend the period of elevated interest rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also warned that the Fed is currently grappling with multiple overlapping supply shocks, and there is a risk of unanchored inflation expectations. Some off

April 9th: Israeli media reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed opposition to striking an agreement with Iran during a conversation with Trump prior to the ceasefire announcement.