The Fed Rate Cut Probability Rises This Year

On April 8, per Onchain Lens monitoring data, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes transferred 265,461 ETHFI (≈$117,590) to FalconX and 35,500 AUKI (≈$19,610) to FlowDesk—likely for selling purposes.

April 8: Market volatility intensified, per HyperInsight monitoring (https://t.me/HyperInsight). A whale with a wallet address beginning with 0xf51 rapidly adjusted its positions in just 10 minutes—closing its prior 40x leveraged BTC short, switching to a long position, then slightly trimming holdings. The address currently holds an ~$8 million BTC long position with an average entry price of $71,961 and is in a floating loss. Additionally, the whale holds a ~$4 million 20x leveraged SOL short position and a ~$1.8 million xyz:XYZ100 short position, both of which are currently slightly in the red.

April 8 — AP: A regional official has disclosed that the two-week ceasefire plan allows Iran and Oman to collect tolls from ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

On April 8, Daniel Yan, founder of Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital), posted on social media: “The war has been confirmed over—no insider info, and neither side has reason to keep fighting. Lock in profits as the rebound unfolds.” This year’s crypto market is strikingly similar to 2019. Secondary liquidity has seen a cliff-edge drop, primary market investment confidence is nearly non-existent, Web3 firms are laying off staff en masse, and industry professionals are switching careers. When others are fearful, you should be greedy. This year is definitely the ideal window for secondary market bottom-fishing and primary market investing—just like 2019. Firms that bottom-fished in the secondary market and invested in primary deals in 2019 emerged as the biggest winners of the 2020 bull run. We’re focused on executing both initiatives effectively.

On April 8, CoinDesk reported that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has formally proposed a regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers. As one of the federal financial regulatory agencies tasked with developing and overseeing rules under the GENIUS Act—passed last year—the FDIC is moving forward with implementing the related framework. The proposal aligns closely with the framework put forward by its sister agency, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), in February this year. The FDIC’s latest proposal includes 144 questions and will open a 60-day public comment period. Under the proposal, stablecoins will not receive the same deposit insurance protection as traditional bank deposits.

April 8th, CoinDesk reported that Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) said in his autobiography *Freedom of Money* that during a pre-acquisition call with Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) in November 2022, SBF casually asked for "tens of billions of dollars—like ordering a bologna sandwich"—and never planned to follow through on the FTX deal from the start. CZ wrote: "Neither was I interested in acquiring FTX nor in helping SBF, but we might have needed to act to protect users and the industry." He clarified signing the non-binding letter of intent (LOI) was merely a formality: "I made clear we wouldn’t make binding commitments; our team was just assessing data before deciding." On FTX’s collapse, CZ identified a fatal misstep by Alameda’s former CEO Caroline Ellison as the turning point. When Ellison publicly offered to repurchase Binance’s FTT holdings at $22 per token (to stabilize the market), she "essentially exposed a price floor." Pro traders immediately shorted FTT below that leve