"Doomsday Report" Organization Field Visit: Hormuz Strait Enters New Phase of "Simultaneous Hot War and Business Diplomacy"

On April 6, Citrini Research—author of the "Doomsday Report"—released its **Hormuz Strait On-Site Inspection Report**. Reportedly, the firm dispatched an analyst fluent in four languages (including Arabic) to conduct on-site inspections in the central Hormuz Strait to assess the strait’s actual conditions. The Citrini Research analyst noted that investors should **ditch the "open-or-closed" binary mindset**. The Hormuz Strait’s reality is far more complex, featuring a mix of active conflict and business diplomacy—with traffic volume expected to gradually rebound as the conflict persists. The ongoing situation cannot be reduced to simple labels like "conflict escalation/de-escalation" or "strait open/closed." While the U.S. conducts military operations, its allies (including France, Japan, and Greece) are actively negotiating passage rights with Iran. This is a classic sign of a multipolar world. Currently, Iran operates a functional passage inspection station between Qeshm Island and Larak Island, directing all approved traffic through Iranian territorial waters (instead of the traditional shipping lane). Vessels or their flag states contact Iran via intermediaries, provide details on ownership, cargo, crew, and other information, and pay a passage fee. After review, they receive a confirmation code and are escorted through the strait. Unapproved vessels are held pending review. The analyst stated Iran’s stance: it does not want to close the strait. Its goal is to set up a sovereignty framework similar to how Turkey manages the Bosporus Strait. By controlling passage and collecting fees, Iran allows commercial traffic to operate—positioning itself as a responsible global trade steward while isolating the U.S. Countries demanding Iran open the strait for free are simultaneously carrying out military strikes. However, a full strait closure would trigger a global economic disaster—with current estimates pointing to a daily net loss of 10.6 million barrels of commercial crude oil inventory worldwide. Most other countries (the list growing rapidly, including China, India, Russia, Japan, France, and Malaysia) are choosing to strike deals with Iran to secure energy supplies. The analyst forecasts strait traffic will rise as the conflict persists. The process will be chaotic: mostly LPG carriers and small tankers will pass through, while large oil tankers like VLCCs remain rare. This won’t avoid a global economic shock, but it’s far better than a full closure. Iran is actively restraining the Houthi armed forces’ activities in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, holding these actions as an unplayed escalation card. Regardless of the strait’s status, freight rates will stay high, and tanker stocks—like BWET—may not have peaked yet. The Federal Reserve may look past the conflict’s impact, leaving room for an earlier-than-expected interest rate cut. This "premature" expectation still has room to grow.