Iran Threat to Completely Close Strait of Hormuz Reduces Probability of Navigation Resumption Before April to Only 31%

**Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Warns Strait of Hormuz Closure If U.S. Strikes Energy Facilities** On March 22, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a warning: should U.S. President Donald Trump follow through on his threat to target Iran’s energy facilities, the Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed. Trump took to social media on March 21 to tweet: if Iran does not unconditionally and without threats reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, the U.S. will strike and destroy all of its power plants. Also on March 22, Iranian Islamic Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated: if Iran’s power plants and other infrastructure become targets, all energy and oil facilities across the entire Middle East will be deemed legitimate targets facing irreversible destruction—leading to a long-term spike in oil prices. Per monitoring from PolyBeats, the prediction market Polymarket currently puts the probability of the Strait of Hormuz reopening by April at 31%—a sharp drop from 77% on March 10.