Full Text of the Federal Reserve's Decision: Maintaining Interest Rates and Expectation of One Rate Cut Later This Year, with Dissent from Board Member Milan
2 hours ago
**FED HOLDS RATES STEADY; 11-1 VOTE, MIRAN DISSENTS (MARCH 19)**
The Federal Reserve kept its federal funds target range unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% on March 19, with the FOMC voting 11-1 to hold rates. Governor Stephen I. Miran dissented, advocating a 25-basis-point rate cut.
The Committee’s post-meeting statement flagged "high uncertainties" around the economic outlook, including "uncertain implications" of the Middle East situation for the U.S. economy. The latest dot plot projects a total of 25 basis points in rate cuts by 2026.
Key economic takeaways from the statement:
- Economic activity expanding at a moderate pace
- Job gains slowing, unemployment rate steady
- Inflation still "somewhat elevated"
The Fed reaffirmed its dual mandate of maximum employment and 2% inflation over the long run. It will assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and risks to adjust policy timing/size, and remains prepared to tweak policy if risks impede its goals (considering labor markets, inflation pressures, financial/international developments).
**Voting breakdown**:
Favoring the decision: Chair Jerome H. Powell, Vice Chair John C. Williams, Michael S. Barr, Michelle W. Bowman, Lisa D. Cook, Beth M. Hammack, Philip N. Jefferson, Neel Kashkari, Lorie K. Logan, Anna Paulson, Christopher J. Waller.
Dissenting: Miran (argued for a 25bp rate cut).
Relevant content
After today's interest rate decision, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in April is 1%.
March 19 — CME FedWatch data shows that following today’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision:
- Probability of holding rates steady through April: 97%; 25bp rate cut: 2%; 25bp rate hike: 1%
- Probability of holding steady through June: 84.4%; cumulative 25bp rate cut probability: 14.4%; cumulative 25bp rate hike: 1.2%
The next two FOMC meetings are scheduled for April 29 and June 17.
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He also warned that energy inflation is an issue that cannot be taken lightly.
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