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Rebound Recap: Technicians Lead the Way in Longing the Short, with Garrett Jin Standing Out as One of the Few Bears

2 hours ago

March 17th. Since this Monday, the crypto market has rebounded sharply, with Bitcoin and Ethereum hitting their highest levels since February 5th. Amid uncertainty over Iran and volatile macro liquidity, this rally is likely more of a technical bounce. BlockBeats’ recap of the latest trends follows: Over the weekend, technical analysts led by Peter Brandt and Ali Charts were the first to “flip bullish,” issuing clear positive calls on crypto. Brandt has posted charts multiple times since March 10th, signaling a short-term Bitcoin uptrend. Yesterday, he updated his view, noting Ethereum has formed a “small daily bottom” in a long-term historical support zone—suggesting it could surge toward $2,600. Meanwhile, Ali Charts flagged the rebound ahead of time. At 2 a.m. Beijing time on Monday, he made a rare statement that Bitcoin’s rebound probability was “100%.” Yesterday, he added his Ethereum take: its super-trend indicator “has flipped from sell to buy for the first time since last September. This signal only appeared twice recently, with Ethereum prices rising 52% and 174% afterward, respectively.” While analysts weighed in, Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy) and Tom Lee ramped up their positions. A Monday announcement showed MicroStrategy boosted its Bitcoin holdings by 22,337 coins last week, while Bitmine increased its ETH holdings by 60,999 coins—both showing clear acceleration. Notably, Garrett Jin, agent for the previously high-profile bullish “BTC OG insider whale,” has emerged as one of the few bearish voices. He has repeatedly warned the Iran situation could trigger a market collapse. When asked about his outlook, Jin said: “I don’t currently have enough confidence to build a position. Right now, I’m leaning toward trading other more obvious investment opportunities.”
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On March 17, per Onchain Lens monitoring, the Bhutanese government transferred 20.5 BTC (valued at $1.52 million) to QCP Capital and 1.02 BTC (worth $75,900) to a new wallet, with potential additional transfers in the pipeline.

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A certain whale entered a long position on BTC with high leverage to chase the uptrend, with the liquidation price set around $73,400.

March 17 — Per HyperInsight monitoring (link: https://t.me/HyperInsight), an address starting with 0xa95 opened a 40x leveraged long position on BTC totaling $4.1 million in the past hour. The entry price was $74,398, with a corresponding liquidation price of $73,463. The position’s current unrealized loss is approximately $13,000 (-13%). Additionally, within the last 10 minutes, the same address placed a market stop-loss order nearly matching its liquidation price, setting the stop at $73,468.

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Moody's Chief Economist: If the Hormuz Strait Blockade Continues, U.S. Economic Recession Will Be Hard to Avoid

March 17 — Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi noted U.S. economic prospects will keep worsening as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to tanker traffic—even though current U.S. oil and natural gas production roughly matches domestic consumption. Zandi warned a U.S. recession is unavoidable if conditions don’t shift in the coming weeks. Before the Iran conflict, Moody’s machine learning-driven leading indicators already pointed to a 49% chance of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months. Zandi expects the model’s next update to show recession odds at 50% or higher. Several investment banks still peg recession probabilities at 30–40% currently. Adnaan Research recently hiked its market crash probability from 20% to 35%. The S&P 500 gained 1% Monday to close at 6,699.38—Wall Street hasn’t fully priced in a recession yet overall.

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Bitcoin ETF Cost Base is around $80,000, Caution Advised on This Price Resistance

On March 17, CryptoQuant analyst @AxelAdlerJr noted that Bitcoin spot ETF inflows have rebounded recently, but the cryptocurrency’s price remains $5,174 below the ETF’s realized price — which roughly equals the average cost of Bitcoin held by the ETFs. The analyst added that a demand recovery could push prices higher, though resistance near $80,000 may trigger profit-taking. Monitoring subsequent macro data will be critical to assessing the asset’s breakout potential.

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The military assessment considers the successful "assassination" of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary

March 17 (Xinhua) — According to Israeli media reports on the same day, the Israeli military assesses it has successfully "assassinated" Ali Rezaie, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. Iran has not yet commented on the claim.

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The US Ford-class aircraft carrier is expected to remain in the Middle East until May

March 17: Crew aboard the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier have been notified to remain in the Middle East through May. (The New York Times)

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