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Geopolitical Escalation Exacerbates, Weakens Rate Cut Expectations, March Fed Rate Cut Probability Only 2.7%

2 hours ago

**March 3:** Amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, concerns over climbing oil prices have amplified potential inflation risks and dimmed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. CME’s FedWatch Tool shows the probability of a 25-basis-point (bp) rate cut at the Fed’s March meeting is just 2.7%, while the chance rates will hold steady stands at 88%. For the period through April, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged is 87.3%, with a 12.5% chance of a cumulative 25-bp cut and a 0.2% probability of a cumulative 50-bp cut. The Fed’s next two FOMC meetings are scheduled for March 18 and April 29.
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Trump Statement: Willing to Support Armed Militias Inside Iran

March 3 (Wed.) — *The Wall Street Journal* reported Wednesday that U.S. officials stated former President Donald Trump is prepared to back armed militias operating within Iran.

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Federal Reserve's Williams: Further Rate Cuts "Will Eventually Be Necessary" if Inflation Cools This Year

March 3 — New York Fed President John Williams, a permanent voting member of the FOMC, said Wednesday that further interest rate cuts will “eventually be warranted” if inflation cools this year. Supported by a range of factors, U.S. GDP growth is projected to reach 2.5% in 2026, per FXStreet.

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US Stocks Extend Intraday Decline, Major Indexes briefly drop over 2%

On March 3, per Bitget market data, U.S. stocks extended intraday declines further, with all three major indexes falling over 2% at one point. Current losses stand at 2.2% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 2.06% for the Nasdaq Composite, and 1.98% for the S&P 500.

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Three new addresses today accumulated 1,298.46 BTC, equivalent to $86.4 million.

On March 3rd, three newly created Bitcoin wallet addresses received a total of 1,298.46 BTC from Bitcoin custody firm BitGo, per LookOnChain monitoring data. The total value of the transfer amounts to roughly $86.4 million.

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Spot Gold Plunges 5.00% Intraday, Now Trading at $5053.57 per Ounce

March 3rd: Per Bitget market data, spot gold has plunged 5.00% intraday, last trading at $5,053.57 per ounce. Spot silver is currently down 10.5%, with its price at $80 per ounce.

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US Stocks Open Lower, Crypto-related Stocks Experience Widespread Declines, Strategy Down 3.6%

On March 3, per Bitget market data, U.S. stocks opened lower with the following key moves: - Dow Jones dropped 1.72% - S&P 500 fell 1.56% - Nasdaq slid 2.01% Crypto-related U.S. equities broadly declined, with notable performance of major players: - MicroStrategy (MSTR): -3.6% - Coinbase (COIN): -3.49% - Circle (CRCL): -4.69% - MARA Holdings (MARA): -3.66% - Riot Blockchain (RIOT): -6.06% - Bit Digital Immersion (BTBT): -2.5% - SuperBid Entertainment (SBET): -2.57%

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