Bloomberg Opinion: This Iran War Won’t Blow Up the Oil Crisis

March 2nd, Bloomberg columnist Javier Blas noted that the Iranian attack’s impact on oil prices was severe, though not disruptive. Blas pointed out the market’s top concern: whether both sides will target energy infrastructure or shut down oil shipping routes. Neither has happened yet—at least not so far. While fears lingered that Iran could torch the Middle East’s energy sector (targeting oil fields, refineries, and export terminals), Tehran hasn’t weaponized oil. Israel and the U.S. also haven’t targeted Iran’s oil infrastructure. Analysts say oil prices will spike—but even the most bullish traders are only talking about a possible $100 per barrel, far below the $139 hit after the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict and the 2008 record of $147.50. Given that, this Middle East crisis isn’t likely to spark an oil shock. Moreover, while the physical oil market is weak, the financial oil market has been bullish—snapping up crude in anticipation of higher prices. A year ago, Israel and the U.S.’s 12-day conflict with Iran caught many traders off guard, sparking a buying frenzy that sent oil prices soaring. This time, bullish positions are at one of their highest levels in the past decade. As a result, oil traders are better prepared to weather this crisis.