View: The Longest Miner Capitulation in History Is About to End, This Sell-off May Have Bottomed Out

February 25th – Analysts say the worst phase of Bitcoin’s 50% retracement may be over, as the Hash Ribbon indicator signals three months of miner capitulation selling have ended. Bitcoin typically bottoms when miners face peak financial stress: capitulation occurs when mining revenue dips below operating costs, forcing less efficient miners to shut down machines and sell Bitcoin reserves to cover electricity bills, debts, and operational expenses—this drives a hash rate decline and sustained selling pressure in the market. A cross of the 30-day hash rate moving average above the 60-day moving average signals miners are coming back online, easing network pressure, and that turning point is near. Looking back, there have been roughly 20 instances of miner capitulation since 2011—most aligning with local or major Bitcoin bottoms, including January 2015, December 2018, and December 2022. Hash rate is now rebounding, and miner confidence is recovering in tandem. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s current trading price sits below its estimated average production cost of $66,000, a level widely seen as a deep value zone. The last time this happened was November 2022, when Bitcoin bottomed around $15,500.