Analysis: BTC Approaching "Historical Average Cost of Turnover" Line, If Broken, May Enter a Deep Bear Phase

According to official sources, OKX will launch spot trading for OPN (Opinion) at 8:00 PM UTC+8 on February 23, 2026. Opinion Labs is a decentralized blockchain platform that seeks to create a "multiplayer Internet" via on-chain prediction markets, opinion trading, and voting networks.

On February 23, Backpack CEO Armani Ferrante shared a message stating: Users who stake Backpack tokens for at least one year will be eligible to convert their holdings into company equity at a fixed ratio—representing a 20% ownership stake in the current business. More practical features will also roll out and be shared in the coming weeks, months, and even within the next year. As the Backpack community continues to grow, the token’s decentralization will be progressively advanced, with new equity arrangements being introduced—some centralized (like our equity conversion program), others becoming more decentralized as the product evolves. “In the long run, I hope the value the token represents will exceed what any single company can deliver; but in the short term, this is the best way we can currently show our long-term commitment to users.”

February 23rd — Standard Chartered Bank research indicates stablecoin issuers are poised to become top buyers of U.S. Treasuries, potentially reshaping how the U.S. government funds itself in coming years. Led by Geoffrey Kendrick (Global Head of Digital Assets Research) and John Davies (U.S. Rates Strategist), the bank’s analysts still project stablecoin market capitalization will hit $2 trillion by end-2028. This growth will drive $800 billion to $1 trillion in additional Treasury demand as issuers accumulate short-term government bonds as reserves. They add that if issuance patterns hold, this demand could create ~$900 billion in excess Treasury demand over the next three years.

CoinDesk reported on February 23rd that on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant data shows the Bitcoin balance in wallets tied to the Binance platform rose to 676,834.84 BTC (about $44.53 billion) last Sunday, hitting a new high since November 2024. That’s roughly a 9.3% jump from its multi-month low of 618,782 BTC in November last year. Typically, a rise in Bitcoin balances on a trading platform is viewed as a potential selling pressure signal. It suggests investors may be gearing up to sell assets or use the crypto as collateral for derivative trades—both moves that typically amplify price volatility.

Hedge funds that once stoked U.S. Bitcoin ETF frenzy are rapidly exiting, per Bloomberg data dated Feb. 23. CF Benchmarks—Kraken’s wholly owned subsidiary—reports the largest hedge funds cut their overall Bitcoin ETF allocations by 28% between Q3 and Q4 2025. In a Feb. 19 research note, CF Benchmarks Head of Research Gabe Selby said: “The dominant theme of the past two quarters has been hedge fund derisking. The post-October rally pullback appears to have triggered systemic deleveraging.” Brevan Howard was the top seller of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) in Q4, slashing its holdings by ~86% to 5.5 million shares. That cut its spot position value from ~$2.4B to $275M. Bitcoin prices fell alongside macro risks, with steeper declines at times—undermining the prior pitch to institutional investors that Bitcoin hedges against inflation, currency depreciation, or stock market pressure.

February 23 — Per The Paper, multiple insiders have confirmed that less than a month after the launch of Moon's Dark Side (Kimi)’s K2.5 large language model, Kimi’s cumulative revenue in nearly 20 days has already exceeded its projected 2025 full-year revenue. The growth is driven primarily by a sharp surge in global paid users and API call volume, with overseas paid users expanding rapidly — Kimi’s overseas revenue has outpaced its domestic counterpart. Previous reports noted that in a funding round led by Alibaba and Tencent Holdings, the AI startup Moon's Dark Side is seeking to raise its valuation to $10 billion. Sources added that existing investors including Alibaba, Tencent, and FountainVest Partners have committed over $700 million to the first tranche of the latest round. This sets a record for the fastest time from founding to decacorn (valuation exceeding $10 billion) among Chinese domestic companies.