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The U.S. Economy's Growth Slowed Significantly in the Fourth Quarter, with Trump Administering a Preemptive Dose to the Market

2 hours ago

February 20 — U.S. Q4 economic growth slowed more than expected last quarter, dragged by last year’s government shutdown and cooling consumer spending. Tax cuts and AI investments, however, are seen supporting economic activity this year. The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Friday released preliminary Q4 GDP data showing the economy expanded at a 1.4% annual pace. Reuters-surveyed economists had forecast a 3.0% growth rate, but the survey (completed before Thursday’s data) noted the December trade deficit widened to a five-month high. Ahead of the report, former President Trump posted on social media: “The government shutdown cost U.S. GDP at least 2 percentage points. That’s why they (Democrats) want another small shutdown. Let’s not shut down again! Also, lower interest rates!” (FXStreet)
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Kalshi Futures Market: Probability of "Court Orders Trump to Return Tariffs" Quickly Rises to 66%

Feb. 20: Prediction platform Kalshi reports the market now sees a 66% chance a court will order Trump to refund tariffs by July 2026—up sharply from roughly 30% previously.

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Bitcoin Price Shorts Liquidated as BTC Price Spikes to $68K, James Wynn's Leveraged Short Position Gets Liquidated

Feb 20 (HTX Market Data) — 15 minutes ago, Bitcoin briefly spiked up to $68k before quickly pulling back below $67k, last trading at $66,932.55. That move instantly liquidated James Wynn’s 40x-leveraged Bitcoin short position opened tonight — though his position was small, valued at under $80k.

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The U.S. Supreme Court did not rule on the issue of duty drawback eligibility

Feb. 20: Market reports note that even though a ruling has deemed Trump-era tariffs illegal, the U.S. Supreme Court has yet to rule on tariff refund eligibility. Hundreds of tariff refund lawsuits are currently pending before the U.S. Court of International Trade.

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U.S. Official Says U.S. Military Plans Against Iran Are Well Advanced

February 20 (Reuters) – Two officials told Reuters the U.S. is preparing military options against Iran, including targeting key individuals and potentially seeking to overthrow the Iranian regime if President Trump orders it. The plan draws on prior attacks, with targets including leadership of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and nuclear facilities. Trump has publicly floated regime change as an option while also pursuing diplomatic avenues, setting a 10-to-15 day window to reach an agreement.

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U.S. Supreme Court Opposes Trump's Global Tariffs

On February 20, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down global tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump under a federal law governing national emergencies.

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U.S. February One-Year Inflation Rate Expectation Final Value 3.4%, Expectation 3.50%

Feb. 20 — U.S. February 1-year inflation rate expectations (final) came in at 3.4%, below the expected 3.50% and matching the prior reading of 3.50%. (Xinhua)

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