Next Week Macro Outlook: Non-Farm CPI Overlapping with US-Iran Negotiations, Japan Election, Crypto Market to Face Ultimate Test

This week (Feb 7), the cryptocurrency market extended its losses, though it staged a brief rebound Friday. Fragile investor sentiment will face fresh tests next week as key macro events and data flood the calendar—including U.S.-Iran talks, Japan’s general election, U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) and CPI. Here’s the breakdown: ### Macro Data & Fed Speeches - **Tue 00:00 ET**: U.S. January New York Fed 1-year forward inflation expectations - **Tue 02:30 ET**: Fed Governor Waller to speak on digital assets - **Tue 04:15 ET**: Atlanta Fed President Bostic (2027 FOMC voter) to discuss monetary policy & economic outlook - **Tue 21:30 ET**: U.S. Dec retail sales (MoM); Q4 labor cost index (QoQ); Dec import price index (MoM) - **Wed 01:00 ET**: Cleveland Fed President Mester (2026 FOMC voter) to speak on “Banking & Economic Outlook” - **Wed 02:00 ET**: Dallas Fed President Kaplan (2026 FOMC voter) to speak - **Wed 21:30 ET**: U.S. Jan unemployment rate; NFP (seasonally adjusted, MoM); average hourly earnings (YoY/MoM); 2025 NFP benchmark revision (non-seasonally adjusted) - **Thu 15:00 GMT**: UK Q4 GDP (YoY, preliminary); Dec 3-month GDP (MoM); Dec manufacturing/industrial output (MoM); Dec seasonally adjusted visible trade balance - **Fri 08:00 ET**: Dallas Fed President Kaplan (2026 FOMC voter) to deliver welcome remarks; Fed Governor Bowman to attend as guest - **Fri 21:30 ET**: U.S. Jan non-seasonally adjusted CPI (YoY); seasonally adjusted CPI (MoM); seasonally adjusted core CPI (MoM); non-seasonally adjusted core CPI (YoY) ### U.S.-Iran Negotiations Local time Feb 6, former President Trump said the U.S. held a “very good meeting” with Iran, noting Tehran is “very eager” to reach an agreement. He added the two sides will resume talks next week and reaffirmed Iran cannot acquire nuclear weapons. Trump also authorized his administration to impose tariffs on countries trading with Iran but has not yet rolled out new measures. ### Japan Election Seiko Hashimoto announced Japan will hold a general election on Feb 8. The outcome could signal a shift toward more accommodative fiscal policy—including tax cuts and higher government spending—even as Japan remains one of the world’s most indebted nations. Analysts warn an expansionary stance could pressure Japanese government bonds (JGBs), weaken the yen, and complicate the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) monetary policy normalization efforts.