Wintermute: The Bear Market is Not Over, But the Next Rebound Could Be "Different This Time"

On February 3, crypto firm Wintermute published an article noting Bitcoin has fallen below the $80,000 mark for the first time since the April 2025 Trump tariff event. Over the weekend, cumulative liquidations in the crypto market hit $2.55 billion—marking the 10th largest liquidation event in history. Market consensus holds this downturn wasn’t triggered by a single negative factor, but by the confluence of multiple macro catalysts: - Disappointing earnings from the U.S. stock market’s “Magnificent Seven” (Mag7) tech giants eroding the AI narrative; - The unexpected nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair; - A sharp precious metals pullback, with silver briefly plunging 26% intraday and triggering a CME circuit breaker—amplifying overall risk-off sentiment. Analysts note Bitcoin broke below its $85,000–$95,000 trading range (where it fluctuated for two months) as weekend illiquidity and high-leverage positions amplified selling pressure. Currently, crypto assets are the weakest-performing risk assets, signaling the market remains in a bear phase and price-discovery stage. Institutions, however, emphasize this adjustment differs from structural crises like FTX and Terra/Luna: it’s driven more by macro factors and positioning, with no signs of systemic risk contagion. If macro uncertainty eases in the second half of 2026 and the Fed’s monetary policy path clears, market sentiment and capital focus are expected to rebound relatively quickly.