Institutional Alert: S&P 500 Average Plunge of 16% After Fed Chair Change
February 3
Barclays noted that since 1930, the S&P 500 has averaged a 16% drawdown in the six months following a new Federal Reserve chair’s appointment—well above typical pullback levels. Should Kevin Warsh take office in May, U.S. stocks could face renewed pressure.
The report added that a new Fed chair’s tenure often faces a market “test” in the months post-inauguration. U.S. stocks fell after former President Trump nominated Warsh to replace Jerome Powell, as markets viewed him as less dovish than the current chair.
Analysts say leadership changes will amplify monetary policy uncertainty amid debates over Fed independence, high inflation, and slowing job growth. Should Warsh push for balance sheet reduction, it could further tighten liquidity—bearish for risk assets. However, his hawkish stance on the balance sheet may help cap gold prices and temporarily support the U.S. dollar.
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Asia-Pacific Stocks Surge Significantly as Risk Appetite Recovers
Global markets stabilized on Tuesday, Feb. 3, as AI spending concerns eased—sparking a broad recovery in risk appetite.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s KOSPI rebounded sharply from the prior session. The KOSPI closed up 6.84% at 5288.08 points, its biggest single-day gain since March 24, 2020.
Major chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix led the rally. Samsung’s shares jumped as much as 10% intraday, marking its largest daily gain since March 2020.
The Nikkei 225 rose 3.92% to close at 54720.66 points, hitting a fresh all-time high. Taiwan’s Weighted Index gained 1.81% to finish at 32195.36 points.
(Source: FXStreet)
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A certain whale closed a $2.38 million USD BTC short position, with a closing average price of about $78,500 USD.
February 3rd: Per monitoring data from HyperInsight, a whale wallet starting with 0xc38a closed a 30.29 BTC short position at an average closing price of ~$78,500, totaling roughly $2.38 million.
The address currently holds a 20x leveraged BTC short position with a size of 100 BTC (equivalent to ~$7.85 million), posting an unrealized loss of ~$60,000 and a liquidation price of ~$94,000.
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PENGUIN Meme Coin's Top Four Whale Addresses All Down $800k, Sweep Top Four Loss Rankings
Feb 3 — GMGN monitoring data (link: https://gmgn.ai/sol/token/i_m4TE56o8_8Jx8AAHj86wbQgUTjGuj6GTTL5Ps3cqxKRTvpaJApump) shows that on the Solana blockchain, the meme coin PENGUIN has seen four high-frequency addresses with nearly identical trading patterns over the past 24 hours. These addresses engaged in continuous arbitrage trading and are suspected of being high-frequency bot accounts, with all recording the largest trading volumes in the same period.
Each of the four addresses has an average buy-sell volume of ~$300,000 today, totaling ~$1.16 million. Post-trading, each address’s total loss has grown to over $800,000, ranking them as the top four in the token’s historical loss list.
Additionally, PENGUIN’s price has been sliding steadily since Jan 28, dropping more than 78% from its all-time high. It currently has a market cap of ~$39.1 million, a price of ~$0.0391, and a 24-hour gain of ~12%.
BlockBeats notes that meme coin trading is highly volatile, largely driven by ma
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JPMorgan Stays Bullish on Gold: Year-End Target of $6,300, Still a 34% Upside
February 3 — JPMorgan Chase says investors shouldn’t sell gold.
Gold prices plummeted last Friday after former President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve. They remained highly volatile on Monday before posting a slight rebound on Tuesday. JPMorgan notes this was merely a stumble for gold as it heads toward a higher year-end price target.
The bank has updated its 2026 gold price target to $6,300 an ounce—up roughly 34% from around $4,700 as of Monday evening. While this forecast may seem overly optimistic in light of last Friday’s moves, JPMorgan’s Gregory Shearer insists a rebound is imminent. Shearer adds investors don’t need to fear further gold price pullbacks. In the report, he emphasized gold demand remains strong—outpacing his team’s expectations.
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