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Analysis: Bitcoin Short-Term Sees Buying Opportunity, Market May Enter Surrender Phase if Current Support Level is Breached

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CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV broke down Bitcoin’s post-rally analysis using the Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) indicator on January 30. Since the start of 2024, Bitcoin has hit new all-time highs—surging past $100k from around $40k—but the aSOPR tells a starkly different story: it’s formed a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows. This divergence reveals key investor behavior: each time Bitcoin hits a new price peak, holders are realizing profits earlier and earlier, signaling fading conviction in each rally. MorenoDV noted the market is now at a critical turning point: “The aSOPR has consistently followed a descending channel—touches of the upper boundary line up with local price tops, while hits on the lower boundary match local bottoms.” Right now, Bitcoin is testing the channel’s lower boundary in extreme fear territory, with roughly 1/3 of its total supply in unrealized losses. Historically, this setup (aSOPR below 1.0 + significant unrealized losses) has typically created a tactical buying opportunity ahead of a short-term rebound. But the market’s at a crossroads: if current support breaks and other technicals confirm bearish momentum, we’ll enter a capitulation phase.
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