Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin's Current Drop Is Coordinated With a US Dollar Liquidity Crunch

Jan 30 — Bitcoin is on track for its longest monthly losing streak in nearly seven years. With market risk aversion growing and traditional safe-haven assets fiercely competing for capital inflows, investor demand for the token remains weak. Bitcoin is down nearly 6% so far this January, potentially marking a fourth straight monthly decline — its longest such streak since 2018. Back in 2018, the collapse of the initial coin offering (ICO) boom sent the crypto market into a downward spiral.

January 30 — According to the Coinbob Popular Address Monitor (https://t.me/Coinbob_track_CN), the largest on-chain gold bear whale “On-chain Stock Investor” (0xfc66...) has now turned its overall position from loss to profit. Current position size totals ~$91.7 million, with over $80 million concentrated in commodity shorts — notably Nasdaq 100 Index and PAXG (On-chain Gold)/GOLD (Gold Mapping Contract) shorts, which add up to ~$41 million. Key commodity position breakdown: - 6x XYZ100 (Nasdaq 100 Index): ~$19.6M position size, avg price $25,819, ~$1.12M unrealized profit; - 5x PAXG (On-chain Gold): ~$12M position size, avg price $5,250, ~$260k unrealized profit; - 5x xyz:GOLD (Gold Mapping Contract): ~$10.02M position size, avg price $5,320, ~$420k unrealized loss; - 2x xyz:SILVER (Silver Mapping Contract): ~$8.6M position size, avg price $108, ~$380k unrealized profit. This address has focused on on-chain crypto asset contract trading. Since January 8, it has contin

On January 30, per Bitget market data, spot silver fell over 10% intraday and is currently trading at $104.30; spot gold dropped 4.9% intraday and now trades at $5,120.00.

Per HyperInsight monitoring on January 30, a trader opened a 20x leveraged long position on 32.88 BTC at 16:43 UTC with an average entry price of $82,519.60 — the position is currently slightly underwater. The address operates in high-leverage full-position mode, specializes in BTC swing trading, executes stop-losses decisively, and exhibits mature risk management practices.

Binance to Launch Intel (INTC), Robinhood (HOOD) Stock Perpetual Futures Trading with Up to 10x Leverage As confirmed by official sources on January 30, Binance will roll out perpetual futures trading for Intel (INTC) and Robinhood (HOOD) stocks after 22:30 Beijing time on February 2. The platform will support a maximum leverage of 10x for these new products.

On January 30, on-chain data, historical announcements, and tweet content show that Binance’s $1 billion Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) has been transferred from its old address to the new SAFU wallet address (0x420) referenced in an announcement one year ago. All funds were moved as USDC, and no further actions have been taken to date. Per Binance’s official updates: - In January 2022 (early-to-mid the last bear market), the exchange stated its SAFU Fund held $1 billion in assets, including BNB, BTC, USDT, and TUSD. - On November 9, 2022 (the bottom of the last bear market), Binance noted the market downturn had cut the fund’s value to $735 million, and it would boost holdings to restore the fund to $1 billion (comprising $700 million in BUSD/BNB and $300 million in BTC). - In April 2024, Binance announced all SAFU assets would be converted to USDC to maintain stability. Launched in July 2018, the SAFU Fund safeguards user assets in extreme scenarios (e.g., hacks, secu