Polymarket Prediction: Probability of "Bitcoin January Drop to $85,000" Increases to 49%

On January 26th, per HyperInsight monitoring (via their Telegram channel @HyperInsight), the whale trader 0x26359 upped leverage by 1x and opened a 242,356-coin short position on MEGA. Key details: - Average entry price: $0.214 - Unrealized profit: $7,343 - Liquidation price: $0.3671 Previously, this trader shorted MON, LIT, and FOGO, netting a total profit of $41,600.

On January 26, HyperInsight monitoring indicates the "High-Frequency Shorting Pioneer" (address 0x3bcae) partially closed an ETH short position at 11:49. The trade incurred a $12,500 loss over 3 hours, leaving the address with an unrealized loss of $49,000. This address uses a high-frequency, multi-asset strategy with strict risk controls, having accumulated a total profit of $2.367 million since its launch.

January 26: Bitcoin briefly dipped below $87,000 this morning, wiping out all of its January gains. The crypto’s year-to-date return for the month is now -0.5%. On January 14, Bitcoin hit a monthly high above $97,000, and it’s currently down roughly 10.9% from that peak. Several factors have driven the decline: geopolitical risks, fading safe-haven appeal, the Fed’s rate hike pause, outflows from institutional ETFs, and market deleveraging. Historical data shows Bitcoin has averaged a +3.81% return in January since 2013, with a median return of +0.62%. Over the past 13 years, January has delivered 7 positive returns and 6 negative ones for the crypto.

January 26 – Per data from the Coinbob Popular Address Monitor (https://t.me/Coinbob_track_CN), the “BTC OG Insider Whale” (wallet address 0xb31) deposited roughly $20 million in collateral to decentralized exchange Hyperliquid earlier today, with the funds unused as of press time. ### Current Key Metrics - Unrealized losses on long positions have widened to $80 million; - Weekly fund withdrawals total $120 million; - Funding fee settlements have incurred $8.1 million in losses (mostly tied to its ETH long); - Total position size sits at ~$785 million, making it the largest on-chain long holder for both ETH and SOL. ### Core Long Positions | Asset | Leverage | Position Size | Avg Entry | Unrealized Loss | Liquidation Price | |-------|----------|---------------|-----------|-----------------|-------------------| | ETH | 5x | $6.34B | $3,161 | $71.5M (-56%) | $2,192 | | BTC | 5x | $87M | $91,500 | $4.4M (-25%) | N/A

On-chain analyst Ai Auntie (@ai_9684xtpa) reported on January 26 that a prominent ETH whale—who had shifted from holding ETH for 4 years to WBTC earlier this year—has now converted WBTC back to WETH. - **January 3**: Swapped 14,145.93 WETH for 492.16 WBTC (valued at $44.195 million) at an ETH/BTC exchange rate of 0.03479. - **January 26**: Converted 578.66 WBTC back to 17,706.74 WETH (valued at $50.33 million) at an ETH/BTC rate of 0.03268. This move boosted his ETH balance by 6.45%. Currently, he holds 17,707 WETH and 195.49 WBTC on-chain, with a combined value of $67.38 million.

January 26 — Per monitoring by HyperInsight (via its Telegram channel at https://t.me/HyperInsight), over the past hour, the "20 Million Band Hunter" (address 0x880a) has been continuously buying HYPE spot while shorting HYPE for hedging, posting an account floating profit of $14.72 million. This address is linked to a trader with an aggressive style, skilled in high-leverage short-term trades, and has accumulated total profits of $114 million across their full trading cycle.