Summary of this Round of Bearish Views: Bitcoin's key support level is $80,000, with the final bottom predicted to be as low as $58,000
January 26: Bitcoin fell below $87k early this morning, dropping over 10% since January 14 with no signs of a market recovery in sight. When will the decline end, and where will the eventual bottom land? BlockBeats has compiled key analysis points from before and after this latest drop below:
### Key Analyst Takes
- **Placeholder VC Partner Chris Burniske**: Says he’s not buying Bitcoin right now — instead, he’s watching critical support levels: $80k, $74k, $70k, $58k, and $50k+ below. Short-term swings aren’t his focus. If prices rebound, hold and gradually diversify; if there’s a deep retracement, view it as an opportunity to add to Bitcoin and high-quality crypto positions.
- **Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone**: Wrote, “Ethereum looks set to test the lower end of its $2,000–$4,000 range since 2023. I think the risk of it falling below $2,000 is higher than reclaiming $4,000, especially as stock market volatility picks back up.”
- **Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio**: “I don’t
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「Paper Hands Coin」 Trader Adds to MEGA Short Position, Slightly Increasing Unrealized Gain
On January 26th, per HyperInsight monitoring (via their Telegram channel @HyperInsight), the whale trader 0x26359 upped leverage by 1x and opened a 242,356-coin short position on MEGA.
Key details:
- Average entry price: $0.214
- Unrealized profit: $7,343
- Liquidation price: $0.3671
Previously, this trader shorted MON, LIT, and FOGO, netting a total profit of $41,600.
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「High-Frequency Shorting Pioneer」 Liquidates ETH Short, Loses $12,500
On January 26, HyperInsight monitoring indicates the "High-Frequency Shorting Pioneer" (address 0x3bcae) partially closed an ETH short position at 11:49. The trade incurred a $12,500 loss over 3 hours, leaving the address with an unrealized loss of $49,000.
This address uses a high-frequency, multi-asset strategy with strict risk controls, having accumulated a total profit of $2.367 million since its launch.
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Bitcoin Has Fully Retraced This Month's Gains, Falling About 10.9% from the Monthly High
January 26: Bitcoin briefly dipped below $87,000 this morning, wiping out all of its January gains. The crypto’s year-to-date return for the month is now -0.5%. On January 14, Bitcoin hit a monthly high above $97,000, and it’s currently down roughly 10.9% from that peak.
Several factors have driven the decline: geopolitical risks, fading safe-haven appeal, the Fed’s rate hike pause, outflows from institutional ETFs, and market deleveraging.
Historical data shows Bitcoin has averaged a +3.81% return in January since 2013, with a median return of +0.62%. Over the past 13 years, January has delivered 7 positive returns and 6 negative ones for the crypto.
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「BTC OG Insider Whale」 has deposited $20 million as collateral today, with the current total unrealized loss expanding to $80 million
January 26 – Per data from the Coinbob Popular Address Monitor (https://t.me/Coinbob_track_CN), the “BTC OG Insider Whale” (wallet address 0xb31) deposited roughly $20 million in collateral to decentralized exchange Hyperliquid earlier today, with the funds unused as of press time.
### Current Key Metrics
- Unrealized losses on long positions have widened to $80 million;
- Weekly fund withdrawals total $120 million;
- Funding fee settlements have incurred $8.1 million in losses (mostly tied to its ETH long);
- Total position size sits at ~$785 million, making it the largest on-chain long holder for both ETH and SOL.
### Core Long Positions
| Asset | Leverage | Position Size | Avg Entry | Unrealized Loss | Liquidation Price |
|-------|----------|---------------|-----------|-----------------|-------------------|
| ETH | 5x | $6.34B | $3,161 | $71.5M (-56%) | $2,192 |
| BTC | 5x | $87M | $91,500 | $4.4M (-25%) | N/A
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A whale has swapped 578.66 WBTC back to 17,706.74 WETH.
On-chain analyst Ai Auntie (@ai_9684xtpa) reported on January 26 that a prominent ETH whale—who had shifted from holding ETH for 4 years to WBTC earlier this year—has now converted WBTC back to WETH.
- **January 3**: Swapped 14,145.93 WETH for 492.16 WBTC (valued at $44.195 million) at an ETH/BTC exchange rate of 0.03479.
- **January 26**: Converted 578.66 WBTC back to 17,706.74 WETH (valued at $50.33 million) at an ETH/BTC rate of 0.03268.
This move boosted his ETH balance by 6.45%. Currently, he holds 17,707 WETH and 195.49 WBTC on-chain, with a combined value of $67.38 million.
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