Several analysts predict that Bitcoin will be in a bear market in 2026, potentially dropping to $58,000.

January 23 — Per Cointelegraph, a number of analysts are predicting 2026 could bring a bear market for Bitcoin, with multiple forecasts suggesting BTC may retrace to roughly $58,000. Crypto analyst Titan recently noted Bitcoin “just sent a bear market signal” tied to a bearish crossover on its two-month MACD, adding historical data shows similar technical patterns typically trigger a 50%–64% retracement. The latest sell-off has pushed BTC down ~9% from its 2026 high of $97,930, dropping below key support levels including the current 75% quantile cost basis at $92,940. Glassnode said Thursday that Bitcoin “has now fallen below the cost basis for 75% of its supply, signaling rising distribution (selling) pressure,” and added: “Risk has clearly shifted to the upside, and downside risk remains dominant until this level is reclaimed.” Trader Merlijn The Trader analyzed Bitcoin’s price “has returned to uptrend line support,” with the zone ranging from $89,000 to $90,000. He noted that a break below this level would likely send BTC to retest the range low around $84,000 — a key level where the cost distribution heatmap shows ~941,651 BTC was accumulated by investors over the past six months. The next critical support sits near $80,000, where historical data shows ~127,000 BTC was previously purchased. Several analysts warn a weak derivatives market, selling by long-term holders, and increased Bitcoin movement to exchanges could drive BTC into a more prolonged downtrend this year.