Analyst: The current market is seeing a resurgence of sellers in the futures market, with insufficient buying pressure in spot markets to effectively support the price

CryptoQuant analyst Axel noted in a January 20 post that after weeks of buy-side dominance, sellers have reclaimed control of the derivatives market—with U.S. spot markets failing to generate hedging demand. Both signals point to the market entering a risk-off environment. The Exchange Whale Ratio shows a sharp swing in trading activity from buyers to sellers: the metric sits at -0.0917, while the 90-day Exchange Whale Index is -1.81. These readings indicate a market structure defined by sustained selling pressure—a notable deterioration from the near-neutral signals observed in recent days. This shift is paired with a widening short position skew: the short ratio is 0.546, and the long ratio is 0.454. This structure typically means sellers aren’t just sitting on positions—they’re actively selling into the market, amplifying downside pressure. As long as the Z-score stays in negative territory, any rebound will be fragile, likely a brief relief rally rather than a trend reversal. The first sign of a market turnaround will be a return to the neutral range paired with a sustained narrowing of the negative imbalance. Additionally, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index holds in negative territory (around -0.077), signaling U.S. markets lack willingness to buy the asset at a premium to global prices. In this scenario, volatile spikes in the derivatives market could trigger sharp price swings and short-term bounces—but without spot support, these moves won’t translate into a sustained recovery. This isn’t a “panic sell-off”; it’s a lack of buying pressure—the very demand that typically confirms market quality. Improvement signals will only emerge when the premium exits negative territory and consistently reflects a return of U.S. spot demand.