「BTC OG Insider Whale」 Agent's Long Essay Rebuts Bear Market View: Threefold Bearish Conditions Needed for Confirmation of Bear Market, Current Investor Structure Differs Significantly from 2022

On January 19, Garrett Jin—agent for the "BTC OG Whale Insider"—shared a lengthy post on social media. He noted that some analysts have recently drawn parallels between Bitcoin’s current price trend and the 2022 bear market, citing potential short-term pattern similarities. But long-term, he argued, this comparison is “completely absurd.” Jin explained the current macro backdrop is night-and-day different from 2022. Back then, capital’s top priority was risk aversion, and Bitcoin was in a distribution pattern at cycle highs amid a monetary tightening cycle. Now, the U.S. liquidity index has broken above both its short- and long-term downtrend lines—signaling a new uptrend is underway. Additionally, Bitcoin formed a weekly “M-top” pattern between 2021-2022—typically a sign of a long-term cycle top that suppresses prices for extended periods. Right now, though, it’s broken out of its weekly uptrend channel. Probability-wise, this looks more like a bear trap before a return to the channel. While a bear market can’t be ruled out, the $62k-$80.85k range has seen ample consolidation and turnover. The prior supply absorption process has created a favorable risk-reward ratio for longs: upside potential far outweighs downside risk. For a new bear market to kick off, three conditions need to hit: 1) a fresh inflation shock or 2022-level major geopolitical crisis; 2) central banks restarting rate hikes or quantitative tightening (QT) of balance sheets; and 3) Bitcoin decisively and sustainably dropping below $80,850. Until these happen, calling a structural bear market is premature—it’s more speculation than analysis. The biggest shift in Bitcoin’s investor base between early 2026 and 2022 is the move from retail-dominated, high-leverage speculation to institutional-led, structural long-term holdings. In 2022, Bitcoin endured a classic “crypto-native bear market” fueled by retail panic selling and cascading liquidations. Now, it’s entered a far more mature institutional era—marked by stable underlying demand, locked-up supply, and institutional-grade volatility.