Arthur Hayes New Post: Expect Trump to Prime the Pump for Election Resilience, Bitcoin to Surge Alongside USD Liquidity Comeback

**Arthur Hayes on Bitcoin, USD Liquidity & 2026 Outlook (Jan 15)** In his latest post *Frowny Cloud*, Arthur Hayes shared the following analysis: - Bitcoin’s 2025 performance, while less stellar than gold, met expectations—it delivered on its core purpose. - Bitcoin’s 2025 underperformance was purely a liquidity story: it dropped alongside falling USD liquidity. Gold and the Nasdaq rallied against the tide due to stronger non-liquidity drivers: sovereign de-dollarization and AI quasi-nationalization. - If USD liquidity expands sharply in 2026 (as expected: Fed restarts money printing, commercial banks strategically lend to key industries, real estate re-leverages), Bitcoin’s rebound will be aggressive. - Current take: Trump will aggressively push credit expansion to “supercharge the economy” — a red-hot economy would boost the GOP’s November re-election chances. USD credit is poised to grow via three channels: • Fed balance sheet expansion (money printing) • Commercial banks generously lending to “strategic industries” • Lower mortgage rates tied to Fed money printing ### Notes on U.S. language adaptation: - Used **GOP** (common shorthand for Republican Party) for brevity. - Replaced "heat up the economy" with "supercharge the economy" (more vivid, U.S. colloquial for aggressive growth). - Swapped "poor performance" for "underperformance" (standard financial analysis term). - "Against the tide" (natural U.S. idiom) instead of "against the trend" (less conversational). - "Poised to" (common in U.S. market commentary) instead of "expected to" for active tone. - Streamlined structure to match U.S. financial news snippet style (clear sections, bullet points for readability).