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Arthur Hayes New Post: Expect Trump to Prime the Pump for Election Resilience, Bitcoin to Surge Alongside USD Liquidity Comeback

2026.01.15 11:55:49

**Arthur Hayes on Bitcoin, USD Liquidity & 2026 Outlook (Jan 15)** In his latest post *Frowny Cloud*, Arthur Hayes shared the following analysis: - Bitcoin’s 2025 performance, while less stellar than gold, met expectations—it delivered on its core purpose. - Bitcoin’s 2025 underperformance was purely a liquidity story: it dropped alongside falling USD liquidity. Gold and the Nasdaq rallied against the tide due to stronger non-liquidity drivers: sovereign de-dollarization and AI quasi-nationalization. - If USD liquidity expands sharply in 2026 (as expected: Fed restarts money printing, commercial banks strategically lend to key industries, real estate re-leverages), Bitcoin’s rebound will be aggressive. - Current take: Trump will aggressively push credit expansion to “supercharge the economy” — a red-hot economy would boost the GOP’s November re-election chances. USD credit is poised to grow via three channels: • Fed balance sheet expansion (money printing) • Commercial banks generously lending to “strategic industries” • Lower mortgage rates tied to Fed money printing ### Notes on U.S. language adaptation: - Used **GOP** (common shorthand for Republican Party) for brevity. - Replaced "heat up the economy" with "supercharge the economy" (more vivid, U.S. colloquial for aggressive growth). - Swapped "poor performance" for "underperformance" (standard financial analysis term). - "Against the tide" (natural U.S. idiom) instead of "against the trend" (less conversational). - "Poised to" (common in U.S. market commentary) instead of "expected to" for active tone. - Streamlined structure to match U.S. financial news snippet style (clear sections, bullet points for readability).
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Crude oil supply in the Middle East is accelerating its recovery, with exports from the four major oil-producing countries returning to pre-war levels.

According to tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, combined crude oil exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait hit 15.53 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, a month-on-month rise of around 10%, nearly returning to levels before the conflict erupted in February this year. Specifically, Saudi Arabia’s exports grew 13% to 7 million bpd, Iraq’s increased 9.5% to 3.35 million bpd, the UAE’s rose to 3.74 million bpd, and Kuwait’s expanded by one-third to 1.44 million bpd. Meanwhile, Iran’s crude oil and condensate exports have not recorded any tanker loadings for the second consecutive month, mainly impacted by U.S. maritime sanctions. The supply recovery is also mirrored in market structure: Dubai’s front-month crude oil futures shifted into contango for the first time since July, with the November contract trading at a discount of roughly $2 per barrel to the December contract, signaling a loosening of short-term supply. Driven by increased supply and expectations of possible U.S.-Iran talks resuming, both Brent and WTI crude oil dropped around 7% on Monday. However, analysts noted that this export recovery is gradual, with no large-scale concentrated tanker loading observed so far. Separately, OPEC and its allies are set to hold a ministerial meeting on November 29 to discuss 2027 production targets.

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OpenAI is also revamping Git: Codex is contributing to the backend overhaul, with the updated system set to launch in 10 weeks and deliver code pushes nearly five times faster.

Dongcha Beating AI News Flash: As AI coding accelerates, Git backends are hitting capacity limits. Following Cursor and Anthropic, OpenAI has unveiled its self-developed Git backend Pando, which now manages the company’s entire main code repository. Over the past year, Codex has enabled engineers to deploy numerous AI agents to write code simultaneously, leading to a surge in code branches, pushes, merges, and pull requests. OpenAI’s legacy system experienced frequent lags and merge failures, with reliability dropping below 90% at one point. Subsequently, one engineer led the core architecture design, with multiple Codex Agent teams contributing to implementation, and Pando was launched into production in just 10 weeks. Pando enables parallel processing of code pushes across different branches, eliminating the need for queuing. When pulling code, it no longer generates individual data packets for each client; instead, it reuses existing Git data packets and distributes them directly via caching. After the upgrade, the median latency for code pushes was reduced by nearly 80%, with nearly 1 PB of data distributed daily and a cache hit rate exceeding 99%. However, the system no longer guarantees that different branches reflect the same state at a given time. The three companies are tackling similar scaling challenges but have taken vastly different approaches: Cursor’s Origin remains Git-based, primarily aiming to replace GitHub’s code hosting service; Anthropic’s Scion abandons Git entirely, moving commits, merges, and history queries to the server side. OpenAI opted to retain the Git client and protocol, rebuilding only the backend, so engineers and agents can largely keep their existing development workflows unchanged.

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A crypto whale has been continuously selling off AAVE and WLD, depositing a total of $51.4 million in tokens to CEXs over the past 10 days.

According to Lookonchain’s monitoring, a whale address has been continuously offloading AAVE and WLD recently. Over the past 10 days, the address has deposited a total of 184,203 AAVE (valued at ~$25.5 million) and 56.15 million WLD (valued at ~$25.85 million) across multiple exchanges, with the combined value of the two tokens totaling around $51.4 million.

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