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Trump Says He Has Decided on Fed Chair Pick

17 hours ago

On January 9, in an interview with The New York Times, U.S. President Donald Trump said he has decided who he will nominate as the next Federal Reserve chair but did not name the candidate. “I have made my decision,” he stated, “but I haven’t spoken to anyone about it yet.” When asked about Kevin Hassett, his top economic adviser, Trump responded, “I don’t want to say,” though he noted Hassett is “definitely one of the people I like.” Whoever Trump picks, the next Fed chair will take over the central bank at a critical juncture—with the Fed at the center of an unprecedented push by the president to slash interest rates sharply. Prediction market Kalshi currently puts the probability of Kevin Warsh being selected as Fed chair at 41%, Kevin Hassett at 39%, and Christopher Waller at 12%, per FXStreet.
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Citi Adjusts Fed Rate Cut Path, Expects Cuts in March, July, and September

Jan. 10: Citigroup forecasts 25-basis-point interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in March, July, and September this year, per market sources—revising its prior projection which called for cuts in January, March, and September.

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The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to issue a ruling on the tariff case on January 14.

Jan. 10 — Market sources report the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on the Trump tariff case Wednesday, Jan. 14.

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BlackRock Global Macro Director: Skeptical of Bitcoin's "Four-Year Cycle End" Theory, $65,000 Will Be the Trend Low

Jan. 10 — Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s Global Macro Director, noted Bitcoin’s current trajectory aligns more with the internet’s S-curve than a power-law curve. Many Bitcoin proponents argue the four-year cycle has ended, with a new structural uptrend on the horizon. I’m skeptical, though—not of the diminishing impact of halving cycles (a point I agree with), but of the idea that bear markets are a thing of the past. Right now, Bitcoin’s floor sits at $65k (its prior all-time high), while the power-law trendline pegs its base at $45k. While there’s still a gap to the target level, if Bitcoin consolidates over the next year, the power-law trendline could drift closer to $65k and become a make-or-break level. That said, this may (or may not) materialize in the coming year or beyond.

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Polymarket Named Official Prediction Market Partner of the Hollywood Golden Globe Awards

On January 10, Polymarket posted on X that it has been named the exclusive prediction market partner for the Golden Globes.

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Today's Bitcoin ETF Net Outflow: 3826 BTC, Ethereum ETF Net Outflow: 58,467 ETH

Jan. 9 — Per data from LookIntoBitcoin: - Bitcoin ETFs registered a net outflow of 3,826 BTC on the day, with a 7-day net outflow of 183 BTC. - Ethereum ETFs saw a daily net outflow of 58,467 ETH, while their 7-day net inflow stood at 342,134 ETH. - Solana ETFs posted a daily net inflow of 67,125 SOL, matching their 7-day net inflow of 342,134 SOL.

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CryptoQuant: Largest Bitcoin Investors' Holdings See Fastest Drop Since Early 2023

On January 9, CryptoQuant reported on-chain data showing that addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC experienced a year-over-year (YoY) decline of 220,000 BTC—marking the sharpest such drop since early 2023. Notably, a comparable trend unfolded in 2021-2022, which preceded a subsequent price peak.

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